3d • General discussion
Inflation Just Dropped a Full Point. Here's What That Does to Rates.
June inflation cooled to 3.5%, down a full point from May's three-year high of 4.2%, as oil prices retreat following the Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed's June meeting minutes reveal officials are genuinely split on further rate hikes, not the unanimous hawkish stance markets had priced in. Mortgage rates remain elevated near a one-month high today, but since rates lag inflation by weeks to months, this reversal is the first real signal the rate climb may be topping out. A second month of cooling data in July's CPI report (due mid-August) could meaningfully shift the Fed toward patience — though most economists still expect rates to stay above 6% through the rest of 2026.
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Inflation Just Dropped a Full Point. Here's What That Does to Rates.
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