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4d •
They Said The Plan Out Loud • REPLAY & RECAP • October 10, 2026 📈🟠
The president named inflation as the exit, the bond market fought back, and Bitcoin’s leverage paid for it. /// 1. The scorecard. Last week we called $85.6K the ceiling and flagged a shakeout. BTC got rejected at $86.6K twice, then wicked to $80.7K. The shakeout came a week early, triggered by oil and the Fed minutes instead of CPI. We also said the October hike was dead, and the minutes put December back in play. Right on the levels, early on the trigger. 2. The flush. BTC dropped 6.9% from top to bottom, with ~$1B in crypto liquidations on the week and $731M out of the ETFs in two days. Longs had piled up under $87K with funding positive. Spot volume stayed light the whole way down, so leverage did the selling. This came one year to the day after the $19B 10/10 wipeout, and this week was about 5% of that size. 3. The plan, said out loud. The president told Time that “certain levels of inflation will also pay off that debt very rapidly.” Bessent went from “I am the house now” to “I can’t control the bond market” in under a month. The playbook is the 2011 IMF paper on liquidating government debt: hold rates below inflation and let savers pay. With $40.1T of debt at the same 5.3% yield as 2007, taxes can’t carry it. 4. The number to watch. The 10-year real rate is 2.9%, the highest since 2008. While it’s positive, the bond market is still fighting. When it goes negative with inflation above 3%, the plan is live. The last time real rates went negative, in 2020-21, BTC ran from $7K to $69K. 5. Cap or pipe. Luke Gromen argues digital credit caps Bitcoin the way paper gold capped gold for 28 years. Our answer: paper gold needed an opaque vault, and Bitcoin’s vault is a public ledger. Strategy holds ~$7 of BTC behind every $1 of STRC. $1M per coin is 12.5% of today’s $160.7T bond market. With gold, the credit was the cap. With Bitcoin, the credit is the pipe. /// The read: This was a mid-cycle leverage reset driven by oil and the Fed. Every cost basis held, and the composite sits at 45, MID-CYCLE, HOLD. Wednesday’s CPI picks the next branch.
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Jul 23 •
LIVE NOW • The Bitcoin Cycle Monitor 🟢
The Bitcoin Cycle Monitor is live. It's yours, and it's included with your membership. → monitor.joeconsorti.com Bookmark that link. This post stays pinned so you can always find your way back. ACCESS CODE: marshland-deduce-jolly-pox /// What it does Sixteen on-chain and macro indicators, each ranked against its own twelve-year history, fused into a single 0-100 cycle score. Zero means every signal is screaming bottom. One hundred means every signal is screaming top. Right now it reads 24. Deep accumulation. Ten of sixteen indicators sitting in their bottom quartile. That number isn't a mood. It's math you can audit. /// What's inside Monitor — the composite score, where we sit on the cycle gauge, days since the all-time high, and the four price levels that actually matter right now. Levels — every cost-basis model on one axis. Vaulted price, 350-day MA, true market mean, short-term holder basis, realized price, long-term holder basis. You see exactly how many models Bitcoin is trading below, and what each one means. Macro — M2, the dollar index, the 2s, 10s, and 30s. The debasement engine and the rate regime, side by side. On-Chain — MVRV, STH MVRV, NUPL, reserve risk, the SOPR family, cohort behavior. Each with its own chart. Mining — Puell multiple and thermocap. The supply side of the market, where every cycle low has been marked. /// Three things worth knowing It updates live. Price every minute, the full indicator set every five minutes. The score you see is the score right now, not this morning's snapshot. Every chart goes back to 2011 and toggles between historical curves and current levels, linear and log, one week out to fifteen years. The cost-basis models are drawn as real curves through time, not flat lines. It's built on free, public, auditable data. Bitcoin Research Kit and FRED. No black box, no proprietary index you have to take on faith. If you want to check the math, the math is checkable. /// Coming next
5h •
FED Print Amount =?
Other than the M2 chart (which I suspect lags actual “production” by at least some time?). What’s good sources to monitor if the printer runs and how much?
3h •
Hot CPI, Stocks Lose $1 Trillion, Bitcoin Mirrors 2022 • October 14, 2026 📈🟠
CPI came in hot, U.S. stocks lost $1T+ today, and Paul Tudor Jones says it’s 1999. Bitcoin’s chart is following a different map. /// 1. Inflation ran hot. CPI came in at 3.7% vs 3.6% expected, and core at 2.6% vs 2.5%. That’s +0.6% in a month and 67 straight months above 2%. Gasoline rose 9.1% and drove about half of the increase, while rent rose only 0.2%. This is an energy shock the Fed can’t hike away, but October hike odds still jumped to ~35%. 2. AI is cracking. Chip stocks are down six days straight. OpenAI’s annualized revenue came in $20B under estimates and CoreWeave fell 13%. The IMF says AI spenders went from under 1% of global investment-grade bond issuance to ~10%. That’s $650B of debt stacked on $1.4T of revenue promises nobody has earned yet. PTJ calls it 1999 and plans to be short all of 2027. 3. Bitcoin is trading 2022. Hot inflation, a hiking Fed, tech getting crushed and a strong dollar: same four conditions as fall 2022. Line up the June 30 low with the FTX low and the paths show a 94% correlation since. One year after the FTX low, BTC was up 127%. 4. The map says one more shakeout. On the overlay, today is March 9, 2023. The next day SVB failed, and BTC fell ~15% in nine days, then rallied 38% in the nine after. The bottom came while the bad news was still arriving. 5. The buyers are showing up. Saylor says June was the bottom. Strive bought 3,311 BTC, its biggest buy since January. Whale wallets are adding. Strategy bought only 250 BTC with STRC sitting just under $100 par, and once STRC is back above par, its buying switches back on. /// The read: PTJ may be right about AI stocks. 1999 is a map of overpriced stocks running out of buyers. 2022 is a map of forced sellers running out of coins, and Bitcoin has followed it for four months. The composite sits at 42, MID-CYCLE, HOLD. What to watch: PPI and Warsh in Bangkok Thursday, MSCI on Strategy Friday, the FOMC Oct 27-28 and the midterms Nov 3. On price, $80K is the first line. Below it, the STH cost basis at $74.4K and the $71-72K flush zone. The June low near $58K is the line that breaks the map.
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