Trying to lock in a permanent slot that works for as many of you as possible. Vote below, and if none of these work, drop your ideal day/time in the comments.

Bitcoin ran at $64K this week and got rejected. Overnight push above, faded by the afternoon, and today it's back under $63K as the tape rolls over. The reclaim failed. Here's why. /// WHERE WE ARE IN THE CYCLE This chart overlays every halving epoch on the same axis. Different starting points, same shape. Parabolic advance, blow-off top, long grind lower, then a basing phase before the next epoch reignites. Line up where we sit now against the prior epochs and the picture is a market still working through the back half of its cycle correction. Not the launch phase. The basing phase. And basing phases don't go straight up. They chop, and they reject the first few pushes at resistance before the real move. A failed reclaim of $64K is exactly what that looks like. /// WHY THE RALLY FAILED HERE The 6% weekly bounce off the $58K lows was real, but it ran into three things at once. Renewed Middle East risk with US strikes back on and oil spiking. Bitcoin's first weekly close below the 200-week moving average since 2023. And a Coinbase premium that's been negative for 50 straight days, telling you US spot demand is still soft under the surface. That's a resistance level meeting weak underlying demand and a fresh macro shock. First push through fails. Standard basing behavior. /// WHAT THIS DOESN'T CHANGE Fading this specific rally is not the same as calling for much lower. The bottom is still approaching, and it still lines up with the October-to-December window I've been mapping. Long-term holders are accumulating, ETF buyers stepped in below $60K, the demand is stacking underneath. The near-term read and the cycle read coexist. Chop and reject in the low-$60Ks now, base into the fall, turn later. The question is whether we get one more flush toward $58K or lower before that turn. This failed reclaim keeps that door open. We're going deep on exactly where this cycle stands in tomorrow's live roundtable. Bring your questions. Where do you land? Bottom in, or one more leg down first? Comments.

The “over invested” guy says that all you need to do is buy bitcoin when it’s low and sell when it’s high, rinse and repeat.

Hey everyone, quick update this morning, Strategy just announced that it sold 3,588 Bitcoin last week for about $216 million. Largest disposal in company history, roughly 100x the size of the 32-coin sale that knocked Bitcoin below $60K back in May. This time? Bitcoin opened the day green and is holding. The sale barely registered. Take a look at the chart down below. The consensus read writes itself. "Never-sell is dead. Saylor caved. Dividends are eating the stack." Here's the frame I want you to hold instead. /// WHAT THE MACHINE ACTUALLY DOES Strategy raises capital in the fixed income market through preferred shares. STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD, STRC. Those instruments carry dividend obligations. When capital markets cooperate, Strategy funds the dividends by issuing new stock. When they tighten, Bitcoin becomes the funding source. That's this sale. It covered quarterly dividends on four preferred instruments and the monthly on a fifth. Look at the actual mechanism. Strategy buys enormous amounts of Bitcoin. It sells a fraction to service the obligations it took on to buy that Bitcoin in the first place. It keeps the overwhelming majority. 843,775 coins still on the balance sheet after this sale. It's a transmutation machine. It converts the most conservative pool of capital on earth, fixed income demand, into permanent Bitcoin accumulation. A perpetual buyer bringing Bitcoin to the bond market, shedding a small percentage back out to keep the engine funded. /// THE PART I'M WORKING THROUGH There's a 4D chess read on what this positions Strategy for down the line, index eligibility included, that I don't think the market is pricing. I'm not going to half-explain it in a chart drop. Full pipeline in tomorrow's video, and we're going deep on it live Saturday. The question I want you chewing on before then: is a company that sells Bitcoin to fund dividends on securities it issued to buy Bitcoin a seller, or the most sophisticated buyer in the market? Drop your read in the comments. I want to see where the room lands before Saturday.

Hey everyone, First round is in the books. Big thank you to everyone who showed up live and made it a great session. Quick admin note: I forgot to hit record. Full transparency, first session mistake, on me. Next week's session (Friday, July 10th, 4 PM ET) will be recorded and posted to the archive so anyone who can't make it live gets full access. Setting up a pre-session checklist so this doesn't happen again. For anyone who couldn't make it, here's the full recap of what we covered, the framework we walked through, and the questions the room brought up. Grab a coffee, this one's dense. Let's get into it. /// THE OVERALL THEME We are inside the transition. The old cycle is dying. The new one is being born. Bitcoin itself is being contested at the protocol layer. Here's the framework to hold through all three transitions without panicking or capitulating. /// PART 1 · THE MACRO SETUP The four-headwind framework: The market's Q2/Q3 pain is four forces that arrived in sequence and are now dying in the exact same order they arrived. 1. War in the Middle East: died first (Iran ceasefire) 2. Oil shock: dying as war unwinds 3. Inflation: a lagging response to oil, still working through 4. Bond market / Fed: the last domino, still standing The market is currently pricing in the last domino. Once that resolves, all four headwinds are gone. The Warsh FOMC read: New Fed chair, different reaction function than Powell. Higher tolerance for asset prices declining before intervening, but lower tolerance for balance sheet expansion once triggered. The recession the Fed just triggered by holding tight is the setup for the next print. Recession = mechanical justification for QE. That's what Bitcoin is waiting for. The AI capex bubble as competing capital claim: SpaceX IPO and the AI IPO supercycle is the largest competing claim on risk capital Bitcoin has ever faced. Capital rotation is the mechanism. Money currently flooding into AI and private-market IPOs will eventually rotate out. Insiders exiting, forced buying at the top, the crash, and then the rotation back to Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't need AI to fail. It needs AI to peak.