Hi Joe Can you explain why increasing the fed funds rate increases the government’s borrowing cost. I thought the government’s cost of borrowing is determined by the yields on the various treasury instruments. Thank you

Gold beat the Treasury. Bitcoin hasn't caught up yet. Here's the math. /// 1. Central banks already made the trade. M2, the total supply of dollars, hit an all-time high of $23.22 trillion in July, a record for the 27th straight month and now $1.43 trillion above the March 2022 peak everyone remembers as "the printing." The emergency spending most people assume ended years ago never actually stopped. The world's central banks read that arithmetic early: in Q2 they bought 288.9 tonnes of gold, the strongest Q2 on record, while gold's price was having its worst quarter since 2013. Buying a record amount into a falling price isn't a momentum trade. That's replacing something. 2. Gold just passed Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset. Bitcoin priced in gold, the new monetary metal against the old one, traded in the same broad range for over five years. Earlier this year it broke below that range, and has since clawed back to reclaim it. This summer the trade behind that reclaim finished: for the first time since 1996, gold passed US Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks anywhere on earth, unseating a bond backed by a government whose debt has gone from $5.2 trillion then to $40 trillion now. Bitcoin and gold aren't two separate stories anymore. Both were the momentum laggards of the year, and the same money looks to be funding both at once. 3. The math on a million-dollar coin. This year, 164,000 new bitcoin will be mined against roughly $1.2 trillion in new dollars created over the same stretch. Divide one by the other and every new coin is absorbing about $7.2 million of freshly printed money, a ratio that gets worse every month whether anyone writes about it or not. Bitcoin today is roughly a $1.5 trillion asset against a $32 trillion gold market, more than twenty times its size. A million-dollar coin isn't Bitcoin going to the moon, it's Bitcoin reaching about two-thirds of gold's current size. Full parity with gold is roughly $1.5 million a coin.

Congratulations on shitcoin university Joe! You definitely earned it with insightful and intellectually rigorous content free from paranoid delusions about Saylor and existential dread about bip 110

Is the meeting still on?

This week's thesis: the labor market cracked, the Fed's hike is off the table, and Bitcoin is sitting on its long-term holder cost basis with nearly every bottom signal on the board lit up. This is what the bottom feels like. Full chart pack attached: August 7th, 2026 - Chart Pack /// 1. The catalyst — the labor market just broke. July payrolls came in at negative 23,000 against an expected gain of 83,000. First outright job loss of the cycle. May and June got revised down by a combined 103,000, which means the labor market has been quietly weaker than the headline numbers said for two straight months. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1%, but only because people left the workforce, and wage growth cooled to its slowest pace since May 2021. One bad print is noise. A trend that had to be revised into existence is a signal. 2. The Fed pivot nobody was positioned for. A week ago the market was pricing a September rate hike, and three FOMC members had dissented in July arguing for exactly that. After this morning, the odds of a hold in September jumped to 60%, up from one-in-three a week ago. The two-year yield fell to its lowest since mid-July. This is the four-headwind sequence resolving in order, and the Fed is the last domino. It just started to break in Bitcoin's favor. The next test is CPI on August 12. 3. Where price actually sits. Bitcoin is at $64,700, below the short-term holder cost basis of $67,400, which means every recent buyer is underwater. The long-term holder cost basis sits at $49,700, the floor of our downside zone. Price is pinned between the tourists' pain and the veterans' floor, and that compression is exactly where cycle bottoms form. The zone stays $49,500 to $55,000. Always a range, never a target. 4. The bottom signals are lit. Short-term holder MVRV at 0.96, tourists underwater as a cohort. Long-term holder SOPR at 0.87, veterans spending coins at a loss, which only happens near bottoms. Puell Multiple at 0.76, and under 1.0 has marked the low of every cycle. The Cycle Monitor composite reads 24 out of 100, deep accumulation, with nine of sixteen indicators sitting in the bottom quartile. The two-indicator bottom signal is live: tourist capitulation plus long-term holders accumulating while underwater.