Here is the macroeconomic breakdown from our latest intelligence report:
Oil price shocks (such as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz) hurt developing economies far more than richer ones.
Why does this happen? Because developing countries use more energy per unit of economic output and depend heavily on imported fuel and industrial inputs.
Richer economies have steadily improved their energy efficiency since 1990 by shifting toward services, while developing economies remain stuck in energy-intensive manufacturing. Furthermore, because oil and gas are key inputs for fertilizers, chemicals, and plastics, a fuel shock rapidly ripples into food security and industrial production, widening the economic gap between rich and poor nations.
🔑 KEY CONCEPT: Energy Intensity (EI) The attached screenshot illustrates Energy Intensity—the ratio of energy supply to GDP output. Essentially, it measures how much energy an economy consumes to produce a unit of economic value.
🔻 High EI (Low Efficiency): Lots of fuel is needed to generate GDP (represented by a large barrel with a small money pile).
🟢 Low EI (High Efficiency): A small amount of energy produces a large pile of economic output (represented by a small barrel with a large money pile).
📊 DOWNLOAD THE REPORT: Head over to the "Energy Market Intelligence" section inside the Classroom tab to download the full PDF. The report includes all downloadable market diagrams and official citation links (Financial Times, WSJ, Bloomberg).