11d • 📊 Industry Analysis
Energy Transition : Adding instead of Replacing
Below is part of some consultancy work I completed recently and sharing a few key ideas:
Renewable energy is growing but fossil fuels are still growing too, so the system is adding rather than replacing.
Oil and gas will remain important for a long time, so new investment in fossil‑fuel supply and infrastructure (pipelines, power plants, refineries, and other big long‑lasting equipment) will still be needed.
If clean energy supply grows faster than total demand for long enough, clean energy first covers new demand and then starts replacing fossil fuels.
If clean energy supply keeps outgrowing demand by a few percentage points for decades, fossil fuels will eventually be squeezed out.
Real replacement of fossil fuels, not just adding clean energy, is not guaranteed. Most likely we will see 'addition' and co-existence of fuels. This is because the demand is keep rising more and more eg due to AI etc. See the plot .
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Energy Transition : Adding instead of Replacing
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