Feb 28 • Tips
Zion, Hachimura 27/2/25
Z. Williamson 23.5 Over
The Suns are playing poorly considering their roster, currently below a 50% win rate, yet they are 8-point favorites against the Pelicans according to bookmakers. Both teams have no significant absences, so I hope the Pelicans can stay in the game long enough for the starters to play in the fourth quarter.
From the Pelicans, we are going with Zion. He still plays under 30 minutes but has a high usage rate when on the floor. The Suns are a good matchup for him since they lack a defender who can match his strength. Bol is currently playing at PF, but he is not a suitable defender for Zion, so they will likely try Richards, who is also below average defensively.
The Suns allow a high number of points to opposing frontcourts, ranking 26th in that category over the last 10 games. They also concede a lot of points in the paint, ranking 28th in that span. Zion missed their previous matchup this season due to injury. In his last four games, he has split results on this line, but given the matchup and Phoenix's weak defense, I see him closer to the over. Last season, he faced them three times and cleared this line in all three. Good luck.
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R. Hachimura 15.5 Under
I'm mainly playing this due to the line, even though Rui has been playing well lately. However, considering he is only the fourth option in this roster, I think 15.5 is slightly high, especially against Minnesota, which can play excellent defense.
It's true that Gobert is out, which is a downside since he is their best rim protector. Still, in this roster, LeBron, Luka, and Reaves all take priority in shot attempts, making 15.5 seem too high for Rui.
He has played Minnesota three times this season, clearing this line only once—in their first matchup. In the last two, he scored 10 and 9 points. He has also hit the under in two of his last three games, scoring 21 against Denver but staying below with 6 against Portland and 15 against Dallas.
He hasn’t attempted more than 12 shots in any of his last three games, and I expect a similar shot distribution tonight. He is shooting 50% from the field this season, so unless he takes significantly more shots, I believe he will stay under this line. Good luck.
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Zion, Hachimura 27/2/25
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