Macro Data 2.6.26 · Jarvis AI

Macro Data 2.6.26

1) Key Economic Releases & Central Bank Events (Today)

Macro events that could drive volatility:

U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (10:00 a.m. ET) — a key sentiment read that can influence equities and USD direction.
Fed Speak — Jefferson (noon ET) — central bank commentary often moves yields and USD if tone shifts.
Consumer Credit (3:00 p.m. ET) — risk assets may respond if credit growth surprises.
RBA Governor Bullock Remarks — Asia session event; may impact AUD pairs and risk sentiment.

Note: The U.S. January jobs report was delayed due to government shutdown, pushing headline labor data to next week, leaving today’s data to set tone.

2) Overnight Global Markets & Forward Curves

Asia & European sentiment:

Asian markets extended losses, led by tech weakness, reflecting risk‑off conditions.
European futures have been mixed, with continued tech pressure but some safe‑haven buying.
Currencies: Safe‑haven flows into JPY noted overnight; Yen strength against majors (Forex data).

U.S. futures this morning:

Initial data suggests slight tilt higher in Dow/S&P/Nasdaq futures, though still digesting tech sell‑off pressures.
Risk assets remain sensitive to earnings news and macro data.

3) Pre‑Market Movement — Key Stocks (e.g., Tesla)

Equity snapshot (price check):

Tesla (TSLA): ~$397.21 and showing modest downside pressure pre‑open.

At this hour, broader pre‑market movers include (based on latest price action headlines):

Amazon trading lower after earnings disappointment.
Rocket Companies seeing slight pre‑market bounce after prior declines.

Gaps up/down and volatility profiles will solidify as official pre‑market prints complete.

4) Significant News & Geopolitical Drivers

Top headlines that could influence sentiment:

U.S.–Iran indirect talks commence in Oman — geopolitical risk premium rising.
Global tech sell‑off persists — software and AI‑linked stocks under pressure.
Amazon earnings weakness intensifies risk aversion in equity markets.
Mortgage rates near 6% — housing/financials may respond to yield dynamics.

Donald Trump speaking today?

No scheduled Trump address on Feb. 6 listed on official calendars. Recent “Trump Speaks” listings show last speech on Feb. 5 — happening historically around evening hours (past data).

5) Key Technical Levels & Indicators

(These are general framework concepts — current live chart levels require real‑time data)

Indices:

S&P 500 — Watch recent support zone lows from tech sell‑off; RSI extremes could signal oversold bounce potential.
Nasdaq Composite — MACD might be trending bearish; look for divergence signals.
Dow Jones — defensive index levels important if tech weakness persists.

Stocks (e.g., TSLA):

RSI: Check for oversold thresholds near multi‑week lows for mean‑reversion play.
MACD/EMA alignment: Confirm trend continuation or reversal on intraday timeframes.

(Note: Available news indicates deepening sell‑off in tech and software, which correlates with weakening momentum indicators.)

6) Unusual Options Activity

At this moment, live options flow data isn’t accessible in this summary, but based on headlines:

Heavy put activity likely in mega‑cap tech following earnings misses — a classic hedge/vol play.
Check real‑time options scanners for open interest spikes, especially in Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Tesla.

7) Market Sentiment & Fear Gauges

Sentiment context:

VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) typically rises in risk‑off regimes. Latest chart readings should be checked live, but implied volatility has likely increased with tech sell‑off.
News flow and positioning suggest neutral‑to‑bearish bias currently due to earnings disappointments and macro uncertainty.

8) Sector Rotations

Emerging patterns:

Rotation out of tech/software into defensive sectors and staples/healthcare observed.
Energy and industrials show pickup relative to risk assets.

If this rotation persists, tech‑biased names (including EVs like Tesla) may lag until sentiment stabilizes.

9) Risk Management

Before market open:

Define stop‑loss levels near recent support or prior session lows.
Position sizing should reflect elevated volatility (wide ATR readings).
Hedge with index options or inverse products if running sizable long exposures.

Risk is heightened with delayed jobs data and rising geopolitical noise.

10) Primary Trading Plan / Thesis

Today’s plan could look like:

Base Case:

Neutral/Bearish range‑trade environment ahead of consumer sentiment print and Fed speak.
Look for retests of key support with controlled size.

Alternate Bullish:

If sentiment data surprises higher and tech earnings stabilize, expect bounce off oversold levels.

Adaptive cues:

Bullish shift: Strong reversal in futures + tech sector, improving breadth.
Bearish continuation: Break below recent consolidation lows with rising VIX and USD strength.

Bonus — Big Cap Earnings To Watch

Amazon disappointment already impacting sentiment.
Market commentary highlights upcoming earnings from firms like Philip Morris, Cisco, McDonald’s in next sessions — monitor next week headlines.

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