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A+ CALL SETUPS (Bullish)
1)
SPX — Morning Support Bounce (0DTE/Weekly)
- Type: Momentum reversal / oversold bounce
- Breakout Level: 50‑DMA confluence (~near intraday support)
- Invalidation: Break below prior session low
- Timeframe: 0DTE + Weekly intraday
- Why A+: S&P has been oversold from tech capex driven weakness — short‑term mean reversion aligns with macro relief on softer futures. Bias shifts once structure holds above 50‑DMA.
2)
QQQ — Short Covering Rally (0DTE/Weekly)
- Type: Momentum continuation (post‑capex shock bounce)
- Breakout Level: 20‑EMA intraday resistance
- Invalidation: Rejection back under 20‑EMA
- Timeframe: 0DTE / Weekly
- Why A+: After heavy tech selling, early short covering expected. Confirmed break above key intraday EMA suggests tech relief rally continuation.
3)
$IWM — Leadership Rotation Play (0DTE/Weekly)
- Type: Rotation into small caps (relative strength)
- Breakout Level: Previous swing high (~short term range)
- Invalidation: Move below weekly pivot low
- Timeframe: 0DTE + Weekly
- Why A+: Russell showing relative strength as investors hedge against mega cap tech. Classic momentum breakout basis rotation thesis.
4)
ROBLOX — Gap Continuation After Earnings (Weekly)
- Type: Gap‑fill + momentum
- Breakout Level: Gap resistance (~prior range high)
- Invalidation: Below gap low
- Timeframe: Weekly options / short swing
- Why A+: Strong Q4 results and buyback headlines have led to pre‑open strength — exploitation of gap continuation is high‑probability.
5)
NVIDA (conditional, if sector turns) — AI Infrastructure Upside (Weekly)
- Type: Momentum continuation (AI capex theme)
- Breakout Level: Recent swing high (~resistance area)
- Invalidation: Below 20‑EMA
- Timeframe: Weekly options
- Why A+: In a risk‑on rip, NVDA remains a structural leader in AI capex beneficiary profiles — even though tech broadly weak, relative performance here signals rotation out of deep red names.
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A+ PUT SETUPS (Bearish)
1)
AMZN — Earnings Gap Down (Weekly/Short Swing)
- Type: News‑driven gap breakdown
- Key Breakdown Level: Gap support (~$240)
- Invalidation: Above gap midpoint
- Timeframe: Weekly / Short swing
- Why A+: Amazon.com Inc. is sharply down after earnings miss and aggressive capex guidance, with weak sentiment and heavy pre‑open selling. Structure confirms distribution.
2)
Tech Software ETF (e.g., IGV proxy) — Sector Breakdown (0DTE/Weekly)
- Type: Momentum breakdown
- Breakdown Level: Key support pivot (~recent lows)
- Invalidation: Recovery above 50‑DMA
- Timeframe: 0DTE / Weekly
- Why A+: Software sell‑off remains intense and auto‑catalyzed by capex reuse concerns — prime environment for bearish continuation through breakdowns.
3)
STLA — Sector Earnings Collapse (Weekly/Short Swing)
- Type: News gap breakdown
- Breakdown Level: Gap low (~major support)
- Invalidation: Break back above gap high
- Timeframe: Weekly / Short swing
- Why A+: Recent massive write‑down and dividend suspension led to a structural break in auto/EV sentiment — high‑impulse short setups. (Reported news movers data)
4)
Molina Healthcare — Downside Momentum (Weekly)
- Type: Momentum continuation post‑earnings miss
- Breakdown Level: Recent support (prior consolidation zone)
- Invalidation: Bounce failure above recent breakdown
- Timeframe: Weekly / Short swing
- Why A+: Big earnings miss (~‑26%) triggered heavy selling, indicating distribution. Strong continuation signals near term downside pressure.
5)
Oil Pitchfork Sector Weakness — Energy ETF Breakdown (IYE proxy)
- Type: Rotation breakdown
- Breakdown Level: Pivot support (last compression zone)
- Invalidation: Reclaim of 20‑DMA
- Timeframe: Weekly + short swing
- Why A+: With dollar strength and risk assets unwinding, rotation out of cyclicals could accelerate energy weakness on breakdowns — high‑liquidity beta play.
Execution Notes
- Index plays (SPX/QQQ/IWM): 0DTE if intraday confirms early structure; otherwise, weekly options on breakout/breakdown retention.
- Stock setups: Weekly options preferred for balance of theta and momentum capture; compression risk managed via tighter invalidation levels.
- Risk protocols: Pre‑define stop losses at invalidation levels; adjust delta sizing based on time decay exposure.
Current Price References
- TSLA: ~$397.21 (softness in pre/open flow).
- AMZN: ~$222.69 (significant earnings‑led breakdown structure).