12d • General discussion
The excuses are gone. The demand is still weak.
I'm not in the field, so I rely on news, reports, and my clients.
Here's what I've got so far:
In 2025, we had plenty of reasons for bad numbers.
- We had the refrigerant transition.
- We had a canister shortage that stopped installations.
- We had a short cooling season.
Trane’s leadership confirmed that two of those three problems won't happen again in 2026.
And yet? They still predict a flat market.
That is the worrying part.
Even without the supply chain BS, the organic demand just isn't there yet to support a full recovery.
We're exiting 2025 well below the typical replacement pace.
Plan this quarter and maybe longer with a budget for stability.
Look for opportunities that are low risk / low investment.
What has your experience been like and how are you planning right now?
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The excuses are gone. The demand is still weak.
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