Let’s Talk Oil - Buy or Sell? · Going Public with Ross Mandell

Let’s Talk Oil - Buy or Sell?

If you’re paying attention, you already know: the energy market, especially oil, is sitting on a knife’s edge right now. Supply’s up. Demand? Lukewarm at best. And yet, everyone with a clue knows the long-term play here isn’t down. It’s tight, it’s volatile, but make no mistake... the pressure is building.

Right now, oil’s bouncing around the $65 to $75 range. That’s your short-term trading zone. Why? Because OPEC+ is letting more barrels flow, U.S. production’s still holding steady, and refineries are churning into summer travel season. But demand out of Europe and Asia is soft. China’s dragging, Japan’s flat, and even the Eurozone looks more like it’s treading water than expanding. Translation: no breakout yet—but no collapse either.

Short-Term: All Eyes on the Headlines

In the short run, oil’s direction isn’t just driven by fundamentals—it’s driven by headlines. One headline about a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz? Prices could spike $10 in a day. One rate cut from the Fed? Oil rallies. One more disappointing Chinese GDP print? Oil pulls back.

It’s a news-driven market right now. Choppy. Whippy. That doesn’t scare me—it excites me. Why? Because volatility means opportunity if you know how to play it. But the smart money isn’t just chasing the day-to-day candles. It’s watching what’s forming under the surface.

Mid to Long-Term: The Setup Is Bullish

Here’s what the talking heads won’t tell you: supply is starting to flatten out. U.S. producers aren’t ramping like they used to. Rig counts are dropping. Capital expenditure is drying up. Companies got burned in 2020, and they’re not rushing to flood the market again. OPEC+? They’re playing defense. They want to keep prices firm, not friendly.

Meanwhile, the world still runs on oil. Planes don’t fly on hope. Cargo ships don’t move with good intentions. And even the greenest economies still need fossil fuels to build and transport their “clean” energy infrastructure. The energy transition is real, but slow. And oil is still the backbone of global commerce.

Demand may look soft right now, but it’s not disappearing. In fact, it’s creeping up year over year. Air travel’s recovering. Global trade’s stabilizing. Emerging markets are growing. And as economies adjust, demand will continue to climb—even if it’s not in a straight line.

Now add this: refining capacity is near its limits. If we get a bottleneck—either from maintenance issues, natural disasters, or geopolitical tension—guess what happens? Boom. Prices spike. And that’s not speculation. That’s history.

The Wildcards: Shock Is the Name of the Game

What keeps me up at night? Not softness in demand. That’ll bounce back. What I’m watching for are shocks—the kind that punch markets in the mouth.

Geopolitical instability—like tensions in the Middle East, Russia, or Venezuela—can put oil on lockdown overnight.
A financial crisis or debt bomb out of China? That could crush demand across Asia.
Or, on the flip side, a wave of rate cuts, strong global growth, and rising inflation could send oil flying past $90 in a matter of weeks.

This market is wired for volatility—and all it takes is one major spark to ignite it.

So, Where’s This Market Really Headed?

Let me break it down clean:

Short-term (0–6 months): Range-bound. Expect oil to bounce between $65–$80. Lots of chop, headline-driven.
Medium-term (6–18 months): Tighter. With U.S. production slowing and OPEC+ holding back, oil could push into the $80s and even test $90.
Long-term (2+ years): Structurally bullish. Underinvestment in new supply, steady demand, and geopolitical uncertainty will push prices higher. I’m calling $90–$110 as the new normal within the next few years.

Final Word

This isn’t 2014. This isn’t post-COVID chaos. This is a fundamentally shifting landscape where oil is under-supplied, under-appreciated, and about to be revalued.

If you’re sitting there thinking, “But isn’t green energy taking over?” Let me tell you—solar panels don’t build themselves. EVs don’t ship themselves. That infrastructure still runs on oil. And we haven’t invested nearly enough in new production to keep up with demand over the next decade.

Oil isn’t dead. It’s dominant, and still calling the shots behind the scenes.

You want to play this market smart? Stay nimble short-term. Watch the headlines. But position yourself long-term for a world where energy—real energy—matters more than ever.

Because when the next shock hits? The people who are prepared aren’t going to panic. They’re going to profit.

1 comment