Complete Investing – Newsletter #5 · Complete Investing Skool

Complete Investing – Newsletter #5

With this newsletter im doing I’m not just talking about crypto like I was throughout 2025. Crypto is part of my overall portfolio but I don’t want to obsess about it everyday.

I’m doing my best to treat it the same way I treat low cost index investing. LONG-TERM BUY AND HOLD. This week is all about Bonds…

The Bond Market Controls Everything

In my opinion we need to talk about something that'a hugely important to the global economy. And to be honest, I didn’t fully understand this until recently.

It’s something most investors completely ignore. Like me when I didn’t fully understand it for the first 22 maybe 23 years as an investor… (let’s just say I’m a slow learner).

Something boring.Something misunderstood.Something that quietly controls your mortgage, your pension, your ISA returns, your taxes, and the entire financial system.

Bonds.

I’ve been investing for 25 years. I can still remember walking into alliance and leicester in Middlesbrough town centre as a clueless 18-year old. I can remember the excitement of buying my first house at 19. Anyway…..

Over the years ive mainly invested into Stocks, Index funds, Property, Crypto and Bonds.

Most people think:

Stocks drive the economy
Crypto is the future
Gold protects wealth

And I do agree to a certain extent. But the truth is this:

The bond market runs the show.

If you don’t understand bonds, you don’t fully understand money. And if you don’t understand money, long-term investing becomes much harder than it needs to be.

This week’s newsletter is educational by design. No hype. No predictions. No nonsense. I’ve had my fill of people trying to tell us where the markets are going in the next few days or the next few weeks.

So for me we have to focus on education and long term investing.

Boring – yes. But I like boring. And for me if you do properly understand money and investing – it leads to financial freedom…

MARKET CONDITIONS & MACRO UPDATE

A lot of people don’t care about markets right now — and I get it. When you’re living month to month, market updates feel irrelevant.

But if your goal is long-term freedom, you have to understand the bigger picture. And the ones who are interested, who do care – are struggling…

All I can say and keep saying ,is this – educate yourself, think long-term and invest in assets that are best for you as an individual. If someone does something different to you or thinks different to you, all good. Anyway, back to boring bonds….

Right now, beneath the noise of crypto volatility, stock pullbacks, and scary headlines, one thing matters more than anything else:

Interest rates and bond yields.

We’ve gone from a decade of:

Cheap money
Near-zero rates
Easy borrowing

To a world of:

Higher yields
Tighter lending
Expensive mortgages
Pressure on governments

This shift is why:

Property slowed
Growth stocks struggled
Crypto became more volatile
Pension funds wobble
Governments suddenly care about debt again

The bond market is pricing all of this in before you see it on the news. That’s why serious investors watch bonds not just headlines.

WHY BONDS ACTUALLY MATTER (IN SIMPLE TERMS)

A bond is just an IOU. You lend money. You get paid interest. You get your money back later. That’s it.

In the UK:

Government bonds = Gilts
Companies issue corporate bonds
Pension funds live and breathe bonds

Here’s the key thing most people miss:

Bond prices and yields move opposite to each other

When interest rates rise → bond prices fall
When interest rates fall → bond prices rise

This single relationship:

Moves mortgage rates
Moves stock valuations
Moves pensions
Moves currencies
Moves the economy

When gilts went crazy during the 2022 mini-budget:

Mortgages were pulled overnight
Pension funds nearly collapsed
Chaos followed

That wasn’t crypto.That wasn’t stocks.That was bonds breaking.

This is why understanding bonds isn’t optional especially in the UK.

MINDSET – BORING IS POWERFUL

Most people want excitement from investing.

Easy wins. Big stories. Quick profits.

That mindset keeps people stuck.

Wealth is built through:

Boring systems
Predictable behaviour
Long-term thinking
Emotional control

Bonds represent the opposite of hype. And that’s exactly why they matter. You don’t need to love bonds. You just need to respect them. To at least have some understanding.

Once you do, investing becomes calmer. Clearer. More confident. And confidence is what keeps you invested when others panic.

HOW BONDS AFFECT STOCKS & CRYPTO

The core mechanics

1. Interest rates ↓ → bond prices ↑

2. Interest rates ↑ → bond prices ↓

Where confusion usually creeps in

People often mix up bond prices, bond yields, and capital flows.

What actually drives behaviour in stocks and crypto is bond yields, not bond prices directly.

When interest rates are LOW (or falling)

Bond yields are low
Bonds offer poor returns
Investors are forced to take risk to grow wealth

Result:

Money flows into stocks
Growth stocks outperform
Crypto thrives
Valuations expand
Risk appetite increases

This is the “easy money” environment

When interest rates are HIGH (or rising)

Bond yields are high
Bonds suddenly offer attractive, “safer” returns
Capital has a real alternative to risk

Result:

Money flows into bonds
Stocks re-price lower
Crypto struggles
Volatility increases
Risk appetite collapses

This is the “tight money” environment

Understanding this helps you to stay patient, avoid panic selling and position for long-term cycles.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – IDENTIFYING THE BIG TREND

I’m not interested in short-term predictions. I care about direction.

For both stocks and crypto, I use the same simple framework:

1. 200-Day Moving Average

Above it → long-term uptrend
Below it → caution / consolidation

2. Higher Highs & Higher Lows

Structure matters more than headlines

3. Bond Yields as Context

Rising yields = pressure on risk assets
Falling yields = relief for stocks & crypto

This keeps me grounded. It stops emotional decisions. It aligns investing with reality.

You don’t need complexity. You need consistency.

Note

TA is just one of the data points I use for crypto. If I just used TA I would have taken profits in crypto at the end of 2024 and maybe towards the end of September 2025. But I think there is more to it than SMA, EMA, RSI….. I think TA can only do so much and doesn’t take into account QE, QT, ISM data and many other factors driving the global economy.

I’ve had a lot of people on SM reach out to me this week sending me charts proving that they were right and it is a 4-year cycle. This might be the case but I think differently.

I don’t believe in forward looking indicators. I believe in long-term investing and education. Learning charts and looking at them all day doesn’t serve any purpose to me and my life.

If I’m wrong and it is a 4-year cycle im prepared for it. I’ll DCA in for the next 5 years. 10 years if that’s what it takes.

With this community I’m not saying I’m doing this, im an expert and you should follow. I fully understand that the financial system is fucked. Inflation is high. And I believe we need to invest into assets….

What im saying is that financial education is a must and long-term investing is a must.

If you actually put the work in, and do whats right for you and your family, I think youll be more than ok.

HOW TO USE BONDS IN YOUR LONG-TERM STRATEGY

You don’t need to trade bonds. You don’t need to predict rates. YOU don’t need to become an economist.

Here’s how normal investors use this knowledge:

Watch bond yields, not the news Especially UK gilts and US Treasuries
Understand mortgage timing Yields falling = conditions improving Yields rising = caution
Adjust expectations High yields = lower future returns Low yields = higher future valuations
Stay invested Bonds help explain why markets behave the way they do

Education removes fear.

P.s. this is a newsletter that you might want to refer back to. It’s important. And now like always I’m going to try and nudge you towards my YouTube channel @completeinveting – because I go into this in more detail in my latest YouTube video due to be published on Monday the 9th February.

0 comments