Here are some IMO real macro reasons why this cycle could be stretching to 5 years instead of 4… The ISM data is the big one. Raoul Pal has been talking about this for a LONG TIME. Bitcoin's traditional 4-year price cycle appears to be shifting to a 5-year macroeconomic rhythm driven by U.S. Treasury policy and global liquidity trends. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has remained below 50 for most of the past 3 years — signalling contraction — and that extended softness has muted sustained risk-asset rallies, delaying the typical post-halving expansion for Bitcoin. The ISM leads Bitcoin the same way financial conditions lead the ISM — by roughly 6 to 9 months. When the ISM crosses above 50 into expansion territory, risk appetite migrates first into Bitcoin, then into ETH, then into large alt L1s, then finally into smaller caps — which is exactly when BTC dominance starts falling. We haven't seen that cross yet. Which means the real altcoin season — and the real Bitcoin blow-off top — likely hasn't happened. Liquidity. The US faces a $9 trillion debt wall maturing in 2026. That creates immense pressure for renewed liquidity from the Federal Reserve — and any form of money printing directly fuels scarce assets like Bitcoin. We are not in a liquidity expansion yet. But when it comes — and it's coming — that's when the real move happens…. according to Yahoo finance The midterm elections. Historically, institutional investors begin reducing positions in policy-sensitive assets 3 to 6 months before midterm elections. If this pattern repeats in 2026, speculative assets including crypto could see systematic de-risking by mid-2026 — driven by risk management constraints more than fundamentals. So the summer of 2026 could be choppy and painful. But what typically follows midterms historically? Risk-on. Fiscal spending. Sentiment shift. I think Trump will do whatever he can to get a good result at the midterms… What I actually believe: The market bottom could occur in Q3–Q4 2026 — October to December — with the real recovery and new uptrend forming into 2027 and beyond. That lines up with the red candle count too — 5 down, potentially 4 or 5 more to go before true capitulation. But…

@Mark Franco Spiller mate it’s so hard to predict what’s coming over next few weeks and months. We are all just doing our best. If you think about it - do your research - read 3-4 investing books - invest long term - you’ll be ok. The more I think about it - i think simplicity is the way forward.

Claude AI is an advanced AI chatbot and family of large language models created by the company Anthropic. Similar to chat GPT basically. Its another tool to help us… I’m going to use Claude, Chat GPT and Grok going forward and try to use them more.

@Philip Coser I’ll message you a few days before I’m back in the UK mate 👍

@Matthew Thompson sleep deprivation is a nightmare! Horrible! Hope your ok mate and your sleep improves 👍