Jun 28 • General discussion
Global & U.S. Economic Update - June 28, 2025
🌍 Global Economic Outlook📉 Growth Projections
- United Nations: Revised global growth forecast to 2.2% for 2025, reflecting ongoing supply chain issues and geopolitical instability.
- World Bank: Maintains a 2.6% global growth outlook for 2025–2026, as economies adjust to tightening financial conditions and inflationary pressures.
💱 Trade & Inflation
- Tariffs: Continued U.S.-China trade tensions are keeping global supply chains under strain, adding to inflationary pressures.
- Dollar Shift: Many emerging markets are diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, signaling shifts in global reserve management.
🌐 Regional Highlights
- China: GDP growth forecast at 4.3% for 2025, driven by steady consumer recovery, but facing headwinds from global trade uncertainties.
- India: GDP growth forecast at 7.0%, supported by strong industrial growth and robust domestic demand, although inflation risks remain.
- European Union: Economic growth forecast at 1.2%, with inflation projected at 2.3%, as the EU grapples with sluggish recovery from earlier global disruptions.
🇺🇸 U.S. Economic Outlook📉 GDP & Growth
- Q1 2025 Real GDP: Contraction of −0.1%, driven by slower consumer spending and higher import costs.
- IMF Outlook: U.S. GDP growth forecast reduced to 1.6% for 2025, reflecting weaker economic momentum.
📈 Inflation & Monetary Policy
- PCE Inflation: Rose 3.9% in Q1 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.
- Federal Reserve: Continues tightening monetary policy with expectations of further rate hikes through mid-2025.
💰 Fiscal Policy & National Debt
- National Debt: Debt-to-GDP ratio reached 99% in FY2024, prompting calls for fiscal policy adjustments to manage long-term debt sustainability.
- Treasury Outlook: Ongoing fiscal challenges may lead to increased discussions around deficit reduction.
🛍️ Consumer Sentiment & Retail Trends
- Sentiment: Consumer sentiment continues to decline, now at its lowest since 2023, driven by inflation and high interest rates.
- Retail Performance: Mixed performance across retailers—home improvement stores like Lowe's report gains, while luxury brands see a slowdown in sales as higher-income consumers become more cautious.
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Global & U.S. Economic Update - June 28, 2025
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