How to Actually Read Keepa Graphs (The Canadian Way)

You're in FBA Canadian Academy, which means you're not here to play around.

So let me give you something real.

I've been doing this for 4 years. $117k/month in sales on Amazon.ca at peak. And I still use Keepa on literally every single purchase decision. Not because I don't trust my gut - because my gut has cost me thousands when I ignored the data.

This post is going to save you money. Probably a lot of it. But I'm also going to be honest with you about something at the end.

Your going to want to read until the end

THE PROBLEM NOBODY TALKS ABOUT

You've probably watched some YouTube videos about Keepa. Maybe from American sellers doing $500k/month on Amazon.com.

Here's the thing: their advice will get you killed up here.

When some US guru says "BSR under 50,000 is golden" - yeah, in THEIR marketplace, that might mean 100+ units a month. There are 350 million Americans buying stuff.

Canada? We've got 40 million people. Our market is roughly 1/10th the size. A BSR of 50,000 here might mean 3 sales a month. Maybe.

Then there's the 3% DST they tack onto our fees. The harder ungating. The slower velocity on everything.

American advice applied to the Canadian market = expensive lessons.

The flip side? Less competition. Easier to establish a presence. Fewer sharks in the water.

The barrier to entry IS the moat. But you need Keepa skills tuned for Canada specifically, or you're just guessing with extra steps.

WHAT YOU'RE ACTUALLY LOOKING AT

When you pull up a Keepa graph, most people see chaos. Squiggly lines going everywhere.

Here's what matters:

Green Line (Sales Rank/BSR) - This is the heartbeat. When the line drops, a sale happened. Counterintuitive but you'll get used to it. Steady drops = steady sales. Flat line with occasional drops = slow mover.

Orange Line (Amazon) - When you see solid orange, Amazon is selling directly. They have infinite inventory and will win the Buy Box 90% of the time. Unless you KNOW they're going out of stock, this is usually a "stay away."

Blue Line (New) - The lowest "New" price from ANY third-party seller (FBA or FBM). This is your competition benchmark. What you're fighting against.

Gray Line (New, 3rd Party FBM) - Merchant-fulfilled sellers specifically. Compare this to blue to see if FBM sellers are undercutting FBA. Sometimes they're tanking the price and the FBA sellers are still selling fine at a higher price.

Pink Line (Buy Box) - Who's actually winning the sale. This is the price customers see. Sometimes it's lower than the blue line if Amazon's in there.

That's it. Those are the lines that matter. Everything else is noise until you're more advanced.

CANADIAN BSR: THE REALITY CHECK

This is where most people blow their money.

Rough Canadian benchmarks:

• BSR 1,000-5,000 → Good velocity, probably moves

• BSR 5,000-20,000 → Solid, consistent sales

• BSR 20,000-50,000 → Moderate, works if ROI is strong

• BSR 50,000-100,000 → Slow. Better have good margins.

• BSR 100,000+ → You're gambling.

But here's what nobody tells you:

BSR means nothing without seller count.

A product ranked 3,000 with 15 sellers fighting over it? That's WORSE than a product ranked 15,000 with 2 sellers.

The math that actually matters:

Your share = Monthly sales ÷ Competitive sellers

• 30 sales/month with 2 sellers = 15 each. Solid.

• 60 sales/month with 12 sellers = 5 each. You're fighting for scraps.

I'd take the first option every time. Every. Time.

And here's the thing: knowing this intellectually is different from applying it in the moment when you're staring at a "50% ROI" product and your brain is screaming "BUY BUY BUY."

That's where the expensive lessons live.

THE PRICE TRAP (This One Hurts)

You spot a product. Keepa shows the price jumped from $20 to $35 last week. ROI looks insane.

Before you get excited: if you spotted it, so did 50 other OA sellers.

They're all racing to source right now. Orders going out to the same suppliers. Everyone excited about the same "opportunity."

By the time your inventory arrives in 5-7 days, you're fighting 10 new sellers and the price is back to $20. Or lower - because now everyone's racing to the bottom to get their money out.

This happens ALL. THE. TIME.

Before buying any price spike, ask yourself:

• Has this product EVER sold consistently at the price I expect?

• WHY did the price spike? (Seller ran out? Supply issue? Seasonal?)

• Is the offer count already trending back up?

If you're going to play spikes, do it as an FBM flip. Source fast, list immediately, sell at the elevated price, get out before the correction hits.

Don't send spikes to FBA. By the time it checks in, the party's over.

THE VARIATION TRAP (Everyone Falls For This)

This one gets people constantly.

You're sourcing "Celestial Seasonings Apple Cinnamon Tea." BSR shows 1,060. Amazing velocity, right?

Check the listing. It's a variation - meaning it shares the parent ASIN's sales rank with ALL the other flavors.

That 1,060 rank is spread across Apple Cinnamon, Vanilla Chai, Lemon Zinger, Peppermint, and 8 other flavors. Your specific variant might be 5% of those sales while Vanilla Chai carries the whole listing.

You just bought 20 units of the flavor nobody wants.

Before buying variations:

• Check what % of sales your variant actually represents

• Watch stock levels over time (steady decline = real sales for that variant)

• Compare to same period last year

• When in doubt, assume your variant gets 1/6th of parent sales (conservative but safe)

The number of people who've bought dead inventory because they didn't understand variations... I can't even count.

CANADA-SPECIFIC: WHAT CHANGED

Let me tell you something most "gurus" won't.

I built my early business on Section 321 arbitrage. Buy products here in Canada, export to the US under the duty-free threshold, sell on Amazon.com with better margins. It was a beautiful arbitrage.

That's dead now.

Border changes killed it in late 2024/early 2025. The tariff situation made it unviable.

My new reality is Domestic OA only. Source from Canadian retailers. Sell on Amazon.ca.

Is it harder? Yeah.

Is it more sustainable? Also yeah.

The people who couldn't adapt left. Those of us still here have less competition. That's the trade-off.

UNGATING: THE CANADIAN STRUGGLE

Ungating on Amazon.ca is harder than the US. This is just facts.

Categories that are wide open in the US require approval here. Some brands are permanently locked. You'll spend hours trying to get ungated in something that an American seller wouldn't even blink at.

How to deal:

• Start with ungated brands

• Build your account health metrics first

• Document everything. Keep every invoice. Forever.

THE VOLUME GAME (Why Wide Beats Deep)

US sellers talk about sending 50 units of one product. In Canada, that same product might take 6 months to sell through.

I've seen people sink $3k into one SKU, watch it move 2 units a month, and bleed storage fees for half a year before panic-selling at a loss.

The Canadian play is different:

• Wide over deep - more SKUs, fewer units each

• 5-10 units per SKU unless it's a proven winner

• Test before committing

• Restock winners. Don't stack new items "just in case."

This is why Keepa matters even more here. You cannot afford to guess. Dead inventory in Canada sits for a LONG time.

RED FLAGS THAT WILL COST YOU

After 4 years and plenty of losses, here's what makes me walk away:

Amazon active on listing - Unless I have specific intel they're leaving, I'm out.

Price higher than historical norm - You're betting it'll hold. It usually doesn't.

Rapidly increasing seller count - If offer count jumped from 4 to 12 in a week, the opportunity is already over. You're late.

Single data point BSR - One drop in 30 days isn't proof. It's noise. I want consistent patterns.

Q4 data in January - Holiday buyers skew everything. That amazing December velocity? Cut it in half for January reality.

Variation listing without variant analysis - Never assume your flavor/color/size sells like the parent.

I've ignored every single one of these at some point. Every time I did, I paid for it.

THE CHECKLIST (Run This Every Time)

Before you hit buy:

DEMAND:

• BSR appropriate for category?

• Consistent drop pattern over 30-90 days?

• Not just holiday data?

PRICE:

• Historical price supports expected sell?

• Not in the middle of a spike?

COMPETITION:

• How many ACTUALLY competitive sellers? (Not just offers - competitive offers)

• Expected sales per seller work for you?

• Amazon not present?

CANADA-SPECIFIC:

• Using Domain 6 (Amazon.ca) data? Not US?

• Fees calculated correctly including DST?

• Volume realistic for CA market?

Running this checklist takes 60 seconds. Skipping it costs hundreds.

THE HONEST PART

Here's what I can't give you in a post:

I can explain what the lines mean. I can give you the benchmarks. I can warn you about the traps.

But reading about Keepa and actually making money with it are two completely different things.

The people who figure this out have somebody showing them: "That graph looks good but the offer count trend means walk away." Or: "Ignore the low BSR, look at this specific data point - that's a buy."

They have someone to check their work before they spend $500 on inventory. Someone who's seen 1,000 Keepa graphs and knows what "off" looks like even when the numbers seem right.

They're not figuring it out alone. They're not making the $300 mistake to learn the $300 lesson. They just skip to knowing.

That's the difference between information (this post) and transformation (actually getting good at this).

WHAT I OFFER

I run small cohorts. 3 people max. Weekly calls for 3 months, group chat, monthly 1-on-1s, and you stay in my close community forever after the cohort ends.

Its not cheap. It's not supposed to be. The people who do well are the ones with skin in the game, enough capital to actually build something ($5-10K minimum beyond coaching), and the willingness to follow a system instead of "figuring it out eventually."

If that's not you right now, no stress. This guide is still valuable. Use it. Make fewer mistakes. Stack your capital. Come back when you're ready.

But if you're sitting there thinking "I have the money, I have the time, I just need someone to show me how this actually works" - we should talk.

I've got one spot left in my next cohort.

Book a call: calendly.com/mancinifba/30min

We'll go through your situation, I'll answer questions, and we'll figure out if you're actually a good fit. If you're not, I'll tell you straight up. I'd rather have an honest conversation than take money from someone who isn't ready.

Either way, the Keepa guide above is yours. Use it.

- Anthony

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