Where are Mortgage Rates Headed?
Probably the biggest question (and problem) people will face will be the interest rate they get on their home loan. Predicting the future is a little easier with CTT. Here is an article talking about a recent increase in mortgage rates. The federal reserves "inflation fight" has many people communicating a "no need for lowering rates at this time" message. The 10yr U S. Treasuries can also predict these risks and concerns. Now using CTT, most likely we will see inflation in the broader economy if the conflicts continue or escalate. Most likely this will raise the neutral rate as a result. Michelle Bowman also gave a speech recently talking about easing the banking capital requirements, i can only imagine with the right communication and less banking restriction, this could make the housing market more available to qualified buyers. Essentially removing some of the restrictions that may have prevented them from issuing loans. More loans to offer, more competitive rates to offer as well. Listen for the narrative, not the strategy. Do not think about how the fed is trying to bring inflation down. Do not think about unemployment. Do not think about how the fed is going to adjust rates in the future. Although those things are important. You must think about what the narrative is saying. At the time of this writing I am finding just about every single news article reporting on a fed not lowering rates. Rates are rising as a result of the expectations. Last month the expectations were "tarrif removal would lower inflation pressure" , mortgage rates came down based on that belief. Remember that the federal reserve hasn't moved, just the people's expectations. Do not look at what the federal reserves next move will be, instead look to what the people believe the federal reserves next move will be. https://www-foxbusiness-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-march-12-2026.amp?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=17733981799058&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.foxbusiness.com%2Feconomy%2Fmortgage-rates-march-12-2026