Aug 26 (edited) • General discussion
Some portfolio company and stock updates recently
From my own portfolio: Cereno Scientific got a FAST TRACK decision today. The stock briefly touched 11 SEK, now back to 10.3 SEK -- still up 6.5% on the day and 87% YTD. Should be another +87% in the cards if the promised news flow holds this fall. My preliminary target, albeit admittedly on pretty shaky grounds being a biotech, "phase", company, is SEK 17.50-20-
Mineros (3.22 CAD), my absolut favorite gold mine, 50 y old, 4.5% dividend yield, run rate 'P/E' (EV/E) och just 2.5 based on H1 numbers and spot gold price of $3350 has started moving. They seem to be looking into debt financing now, potentially to expand business faster, maybe more acquisitions like the recent La Pepa purchase. So, strong growth, aggressive new owners/management vid Sun Valley + Gold Logic holding 68% of the company, high dividend, and extremely low cash adjusted PE. This could ptentially be a 10x stock over 4 years [to 30 CAD], and if it doesn't go to 3x in 2 years, i.e. around 10 CAD, I'll swallow one of my Kruger rand 1 oz coins!
Canagold (0.485 CAD) is pausing just below the 0.50 CAD mark, up 3x (+200%) since my entry at 0.17 CAD. It's up by 75% YTD and should likely increase by at least 75% the coming 12 months as the environmental and mining permits situation becomes clearer, as well as the collaboration/agreement with Taku River Tlingit First Nations who are the key land owners. Cana has much more explosive upside than Mineros, being a potential 100-bagger over 7-10 years. However, Cana admittedly has several key hurdles to manage, including permits and mine construction -- both political and weather related risks, not to mention financing and construction/organizational challenges.
EMX (4.60 CAD) is also moving higher, +85% YTD, being a royalty holder of both copper and gold and an asset light royalty streamer. Both EMX and Mineros are stocks with a clear path to going to "11". Literally, i.e., the shares going to 11 CAD. That entails just little more than a doubling for EMX vs 3.5x for Mineros. EMX however has a lot lower risk, and is asset light, not burdened by fixed asset investments and mining operations. EMX on the other hand is higher valued and doesn't pay a dividend like Mineros does.
I also hold convertibles and shares in Fragbite, a gaming and Bitcoin treasury company. If you like the Saylor/Strategy model and have a positive outlook for Bitcoin, I think Fragbite + BTC AB + Goobit makes for an interesting and complementary portfolio of treasury companies. Goobit is the most risky bet, due to its loss making legacy business. And yet it's the one I hold the most of, mainly for technical reasons and personal relations.
Leading Edge Materials, nothing new to report really. The stock sits at 1.25 SEK, +65 % YTD,. after recently completing a small directed share issue of shares (at 1.12 SEK / 0.16 CAD) and (free) warrants that I participated in. Rare Earth elements, natural graphite, cobalt, silver (and possibly even uranium) are in the news all the time. The problem is that LEMSE is sub scale in terms of both staff and financing when it comes to permitting or running its mining assets, but the hope still lives!
URC (4.10 CAD) is uranium royalty and uranium stockpiling company. It's only up by 31% YTD. It's been a volatile 5 years since I got in. It's up by 250% since then with a low of 1 CAD and a high of 7 CAD. We're currently right in the middle of the range, with decent margin of safety to the 200 DMA at 3.56. It should soon make an attempt to recapture its 24 month high point of 5 CAD set in January 2024, and from there a positive Uranium price cycle the rest of the 2020s could potentially carry URC up by 25% per year, meaning a doubling every 3 years, so perhaps another one going to "11" CAD by 2028.
Finally, I still hold some "Spotr" shares. It's a nanocap IT consultancy acquisition driven company struggling to get to scale and profitability. They have done a few interesting acquisitions at very low prices, but they still lack solid evidence of the required internal positive cash flow generation to get the growth flywheel gain traction. Don't try this at home!
SUMMARY: Mineros och Cereno are what excites me currently. There's something new and positive coming out about them every month. Mineros is the secure, cheap, reliable one, whereas Cereno is slightly more binary and definitely more uncertain for me, since I don't know anything about their molecules, studies, demand, value chain etc. Phase companies are always basically a coin toss for outsiders. But from what I hear Cereno isn't quite THAT binary, but more likely a question of little, mid or high success, meaning the downside isn't -100% but rather perhaps 50%, or a few lost years. Bad enough if you need the money. Hence, I have just a few pennies invested in Cereno and much, much more in my gold, uranium, magnet metal, and bitcoin companies.
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Some portfolio company and stock updates recently
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In this community, I share my real-time investment process, shaped by years of managing a billion-dollar hedge fund.
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