Okay so here's my take about where things actually stand right now into the year and what most people are completely missing. As we saw, BTC dropped below the area we discussed last week but does it go lower? What about the rest of the year? If it doesn't then what are we waiting on? When does the market turn? So let me give you my honest read, because the picture is more complex than "wait for the Fed to cut." Here's kind of what's going on beneath the surface: Let me start with this....the blue collar labor crisis in the US is becoming a bigger macro catalyst than people give it credit for. - 50,000 plumbers short by 2027. - 500,000 construction workers shortage today. - 193,000 nursing vacancies every single year through 2032. - 800,000 electricians needed by 2030 Electrician employment alone is growing twice as fast as any other occupation and nearly 30% of union electricians are about to retire on top of that. So my point is: - We have a ⬇️ workforce as baby boomers retire - We have have a ⬆️ demand for more workers - We have an ⬆️ ongoing AI race with China - We have ⬆️ costs to get people into these jobs (largely university taught - not trades/skills population) - We have ⬇️ money available due to high borrowing costs/interest rates What I'm saying is - you can't re-shore manufacturing, build out AI infrastructure, and wire a robust energy grid with a workforce that doesn't exist. The demand is locked in. The supply can't respond fast enough. That is a spending mandate whether anyone in Washington wants to admit it or not. But another thing - the ISM ----- ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing PMI is a monthly survey of the people actually placing orders, managing supply chains, and making hiring decisions etc etc etc...It's one of the most closely watched leading economic indicators on Wall Street because it reflects real business conditions before they show up in GDP or jobs reports -------------------- okay continue

Hey everyone! We will still do the Friday update but I'll film it and upload it to a section in the classroom. I'm still waiting on some equipment to come in to manage a livestream. Until then this is what we'll do but feel free to post any questions you want in the comments here for tomorrow!

We hear this ALL the time: "Bitcoin is fake money. Why do you trust it?" They're asking the wrong question. The right question is this: Why do you trust the US dollar? Cause America's first currency actually failed spectacularly. When you look at history, pretty much every government currency falls and goes to zero. In fact, here are 6 currencies from history that dramatically collapsed. They all have the same pattern in common. (Spoiler alert...the US dollar has that pattern). - Roman Denarius (Died: 301 AD) Rome needed to fund wars. So emperors started mixing cheap metals into their silver coins. Over 200 years, the Denarius went from 95% silver to less than 5%. Prices rose 1,000%. The empire collapsed. - Continental Dollar (Died: 1781) Congress printed money to fund the Revolution. By 1781 it took 168 Continentals to buy what 1 could buy in 1775. The phrase "not worth a Continental" was born. Became literal trash. - German Mark (Died: 1923) After WWI, Germany printed marks to pay war debts. A loaf of bread cost 200 billion marks by November 1923. Workers got paid twice a day because prices rose between morning and afternoon. - Zimbabwe Dollar (Died: 2009) The government printed money to pay soldiers and fund land seizures. Peak inflation hit 79.6 billion percent per month. They printed 100 trillion dollar bills. You could buy 3 eggs with one. - Venezuelan Bolívar (Died: 2018) Oil revenues collapsed. The government's solution: print. Inflation hit 1.7 million percent in 2018. The central bank deleted 14 zeros across 3 redenominations. Bolivians crossed to Colombia carrying cash in backpacks worth less than the backpack. - Iranian Rial (Dying: 2026?) 1.6 million rials to buy 1 US dollar. 42% inflation. The central bank governor resigned. The government's current plan: delete 4 zeros. Same playbook. The Rial's grave is being dug right now. ----The Pattern---- Print → Inflate → Panic → Collapse → Repeat. 2,000 years. 6 continents. Same cycle.

Google is pushing to migrate all its systems to quantum-proof cryptography by 2029. Their researchers just published a paper saying a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in about nine minutes. Headlines are doing what headlines do. Chyrons and articles saying: "Bitcoin is doomed." "Crypto is cooked." So let's talk about what's actually going on. The assumption is that quantum computers will break Bitcoin's encryption, proving it was always fragile hype and brittle code. Here's what that misses. The same cryptography that secures Bitcoin also secures your bank, your medical records, stock exchanges, military systems, and every website you've ever logged into. If quantum is threatening to break Bitcoin, it really breaks everything else more violently. So why is the headline never "your bank is doomed"? Because Bitcoin makes a better scary story. Here's the part I find interesting. Google can set a 2029 deadline because it's one company. One CEO, one security team, one update pushed from the top. It may be fast and cutting edge, but it's also a one decision-maker, one attack surface, one off switch. It's what we called "centralized." Bitcoin doesn't have a CEO. It has thousands of developers already working on this. A proposal called BIP-360 introduces quantum-resistant address types. Adam Back, a cryptographer cited in the original Bitcoin whitepaper has proposed hash-based signatures as an alternative. A working implementation hit a Bitcoin testnet this month. Ethereum, the second largest crypto ecosystem has a post quantum roadmap to become resistant to quantum attacks by 2029. The network upgrades because the open source communities build the fixes together for their own good. They are incentivized to fix the problem because they have real skin in the game. By owning these tokens, they are actual owners of the networks themselves. It's sorta slower by design. But it's also how you build something without a single point of failure.

My buddy asked me a simple question when I was a teen that I only figured out the answer to a few years ago. And it's this answer that led me to finally understand why bitcoin is a REAL life raft that millions are hanging on to for survival in chaotic times. "If minimum wage goes up and prices go up too, isn't that just a wash?" At the time, I didn't have a good answer. This innocent sounding question sounded logical. But it's wrong. Political policy and slogans that advocate for "fair" inflation is NOT fair at all. It's not even neutral. In fact, it has the OPPOSITE effect from what is intended. The reason is something most people were never taught. It's called the Cantillon Effect, coined by the 18th century author and economist Richard Cantillon. It helps explain why the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and why Bitcoin continues to be the best performing asset in human history. New Money Doesn't Hit Everyone at the Same Time When money is printed by the central bank, pushed through stimulus, or created through low interest rates for "populist political policy," it flows through a line. Sadly, it doesn't show up in everyone's wallet at the same time. Where you stand in that line decides whether the new money helps you or robs you. - First in line → Banks and institutions. (They get fresh money before prices move. They buy assets at yesterday's prices) - Middle of the line → Corporations and investors. (Prices are starting to rise, but they have capital to adjust adjust) - Dead last → Workers, hourly earners, savers (By the time wages go up,if they actually do go up, prices already moved. The "raise" basically buys less than the old wage did. This is why groceries feel insane compared to when you were young even though you make way more dollars today) In total, the result is a giant Wealth Transfer. It is NOT neutral. It does NOT fight corporate greed. It gives politicians more slogans to campaign on, it gives corporate more wealth and it leaves regular folks like us further and further behind. This is the Cantillon Effect.