Let's highlight the SPX (proxy: SPY) break of the April trendline—this is a notable technical shift. Here’s how I see the setup: Bearish Case: Trendline Break & Downside Targets - The April trendline break is a clear “character change,” signaling that the relentless uptrend is losing steam. - The /ES Daily CISD (Close-Inside-Day) pattern and persistent bearish divergence in /NQ (Nasdaq futures) add weight to the downside argument. - If SPX/ES breaks below today’s low (6885), momentum traders and systematic funds may accelerate selling, targeting the 6800–6750 zone, which lines up with prior support and volume shelves. - A weekly close below 6770 would be a strong technical confirmation that a top is in, likely triggering further de-risking. Bullish Alternate Path: Holding the Lows - If SPX holds above today’s 6885 low, there’s still a window for a final push toward 7000, especially if macro data or earnings surprise to the upside. - This would likely be a “last gasp” rally, potentially driven by short covering or a squeeze in high-beta names, but the risk/reward for new longs is less attractive after the trendline break. My Take - The technicals now favor caution: the trendline break, bearish divergences, and failed retests all point to a shift in market character. - If 6885 fails, I’d expect a quick move to 6800–6750. If that holds, a bounce to 7000 is possible, but I’d treat it as a selling opportunity, not a new uptrend. - Watch for confirmation on the weekly close—below 6770 is a major red flag for bulls.