How I’m Thinking About This “Irrational” Market (pulled from the Desk)
A lot of you have been DM’ing and commenting variations of: - “Is this the top?” - “Should I just go to cash?” - “Why does nothing make sense right now?” Rather than give you a one-liner, I wanted to show you exactly how I walked Desk members through this environment today. This is taken straight from our paid Trading Desk, but I’m sharing it here because: - The market is emotional and confusing for a lot of 9–5 traders right now - Seeing the process for how I frame risk, structure, and opportunity matters more than any one hot take Use this to slow down, zoom out, and make decisions from structure instead of fear. . . . . . MARKET CONTEXT UPDATE — HOW I’M THINKING ABOUT RISK RIGHT NOW S&P 500 vs US 100 I want to walk you through how I’m reading this market, not to predict what happens next — but to show how I frame risk, structure, and opportunity when conditions shift. __________________________________________________________________________________________ STEP 1: START WITH THE BROAD MARKET (S&P 500) Today’s session produced a clear bearish impulse on the daily candle.That matters — because impulse tells us who’s in control right now. - Sellers showed initiative, not just reaction. - This shifts my short-term mindset from “support first” to “where would supply matter?” What I’m watching: - Supply: 6945 – 7006 If price retraces here, I’m paying attention to seller behavior, not blindly shorting. - Demand:The most recent demand has already been partially mitigated. To me, that reduces its ability to act as strong support. - Next valid demand: 6524 – 6662This is where downside would begin to make structural sense, not emotional sense. Key point: I’m not bearish because price went down. I’m cautious because structure changed and prior demand weakened. __________________________________________________________________________________________ STEP 2: CHECK LEADERSHIP (US 100 / TECH) This is where the message gets clearer.