Here is a helpful tool to determine the real mortgage rates https://codepen.io/editor/Uneducated-Economist-/pen/019f326d-db3b-76c3-83da-3b37875e08c8

This is an amazing tool for finding the real rate of interest. Adjustments to the neutral rate, the effective funds, and inflation expectations to determine the real rate , accommodating or restricting. https://codepen.io/Uneducated-Economist-/pen/ogBpjYv

I put these charts together with the assistance of AI. The restrictiveness of the economy is far less than anyone would have considered.

“You’re playing the role of the adult in the room and taking all the cacophony of views and forging a consensus. If Warsh doesn’t have a strong view, or he doesn’t care to articulate his view, then you’re kind of creating a free-for-all.” https://www.politico.com/ The diversity of viewpoints among policymakers lends itself to stimulating debates and, ultimately, better policy. But in such a situation, more communication could increase rather than reduce uncertainty about our policies. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20240513a.htm The Warsh communication styles should not be a surprise considering how Jefferson was describing it long before Warsh. 1. Increase the diversity of viewpoints, "good ol' family fight" 2. Reduce communication, "end forward guidance 3. Lower uncertainty, committed policy

The supreme court narrowly decide that the administration does not have the power to fire Lisa Cook based on the suspicion of committing fraud. However what was interesting is how close the decision came. 5-4 vote is so close it really could have gone the other way. Had Trump gotten his way and was able to fire Cook and it turned out that Cook was found innocent the entire banking system would be subject to individuals basing their strategies to be in line with the political view simply because if any wrong doing accusation could have them fired until proven innocent and by that time of judgement was determined a replacement FOMC position would have been confirmed by the senate and now two different people would hold the right to that seat. The hypothetical scenario and "what if's" could go on forever. However I have a tendency to push back and think , had this been a slam dunk, 9-0 all voting that Trump can't fire Cook, it would get almost zero notice and would be considered standard operating procedure. However having such a close decision that the fed independence could very well be on the line only adds to the ability to push a narrative that otherwise would not have existed. Although she stays, the expectations that she could have been fired now has the markets on high alert even though the supreme secured the fed independence (for now), the credible threat continues.