Why The Same Mistake in 2008 is Happening AGAIN.

WHY THE SAME MISTAKE THAT CAUSED 2008 IS HAPPENING AGAIN.

In 2008 the crisis had a name.

Subprime.

It was a simple concept dressed up in complex language.

Garbage loans made to people who could never pay them back, repackaged as mortgage-backed securities, collateralized debt obligations, derivatives — and sold to the world as safe investments.

When it blew up — it took the global economy with it.

I sat on Wolf Blitzer's show and said Lehman Brothers is coming down.

They came down the next day.

I am sitting here in 2026 telling you the same thing is happening again.

This time it is called private credit.

Different name. Identical structure. Same inevitable outcome.

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Let me explain what private credit actually is.

Imagine a company with a 500 credit score walks into a bank and asks to borrow $500 million.

The bank says no.

So a private credit firm or a shadow bank — walks into the same bank.

Their credit score is 780. They went to Harvard. The bank happily lends them $500 million.

The private credit firm then calls the company with the 500 credit score and says...good news. We have $500 million for you. All you have to do is pay us 14%.

The company takes the money. Knowing they may never pay it back.

The shadow bank is in the middle borrowing cheap from legitimate banks, lending expensive to people who couldn't get credit anywhere else.

This is subprime.

Not mortgage subprime. Corporate subprime.

Same structure. Same risk. Same zero accountability — until it isn't.

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Here are the numbers. Right now. In 2026.

The global private credit market has grown to $2.1 trillion — from $500 billion just five years ago.

In late 2025, Fitch Ratings reported private credit defaults had surged to a record 9.2%. By early 2026, the narrative shifted from "slow burn" to "acute fire."

Blackstone's $82 billion flagship Private Credit Fund was hit with $6.5 billion in redemption requests in Q1 2026 — 7.9% of the fund. Blackstone executives injected $400 million of their own capital to stabilize it.

BlackRock limited redemptions for its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after withdrawal requests reached 9.3% — nearly double its 5% quarterly cap.

Ares Management capped redemptions in its $10.7 billion fund at 5% after withdrawal requests surged to 11.6%. Apollo Global Management unveiled similar measures the same week.

Four of the world's largest financial institutions simultaneously limiting withdrawals.

In 2008, we called that a bank run.

In 2026, we call it "gating."

Different word. Same thing.

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Jamie Dimon called it the cockroach problem.

When you find one problem in private credit — more are nearby.

Jeffrey Gundlach, one of the most respected bond investors alive — called private credit ETFs the "ultimate sin" and said private credit may be "the top candidate to start the next financial crisis."

Lenders are using what analysts call "amend-and-pretend" tools, maturity extensions and covenant waivers — to keep borrowers afloat and avoid immediate bankruptcy.

These tools delay the collapse. They do not prevent it.

In 2008, banks did the same thing with subprime mortgages.

They extended. They pretended. Until they couldn't.

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And here is the part that makes this truly dangerous.

The US Labor Department proposed a rule in March 2026 that would allow 401k plan sponsors to include private credit in pension plans.

Read that again.

The same retirement accounts that 80 million Baby Boomers are counting on — are being opened up to the same type of instrument that blew up the global economy in 2008.

And Larry Fink at BlackRock — the man running the world's largest private credit operation called it "a major development" and said BlackRock will be "at the forefront."

He is not wrong about that.

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George Gammon said it on my show this week.

"It's the exact same thing. They're just garbage loans that never should have been made to people who can't pay them back."

I have been in business for 50 years.

I watched 2008 happen while the people who caused it were on television telling the world everything was fine.

I am watching the same movie again.

Different actors. Same script.

The financial system has the power of what I call a thermonuclear device.

And right now, in a $2.1 trillion market growing at record speed — the fuse is lit.

Most people have never heard of private credit.

They will when it blows up.