IGV — SOFTWARE ETF | HTF CONTEXT

WHAT’S CHANGED

Last week’s note focused on abnormal volume appearing after significant structural damage — historically a condition that tends to show up near inflection zones, not for timing, but for identifying where risk begins to compress.

Price is lower since that post. From a risk standpoint, that improves asymmetry rather than invalidating the framework.

This week adds an important data point.

HTF STRUCTURE

HTF Demand Zone: 76.76 – 82.82
Key Reference Area: ~78 (within the lower portion of HTF demand)
Prior Imbalance: 86.86 – 88.52 (now fully filled)

Notable observation:

The largest volume transacted in IGV’s history occurred within this demand zone, and price held.

High volume following imbalance resolution, coupled with demand response, typically reflects participation returning rather than exhaustion.

HOW I’M WEIGHING PROBABILITIES

Largest historical volume print at HTF demand
Demand zone holding so far
Risk here is better than it was higher
Further downside is possible, but downside continuation is not where I’d allocate probability at this location

This isn’t a conviction statement. It’s a location assessment.

CONTEXT

This still carries downside risk.

This does not imply: