9d • General discussion
7/8 – Market Update: The Iran War is Back. What It Means for You.
- BTC: ~$62,000 (down ~2% today)
- ETH: ~$1,740 (down ~2%)
- 30 year fixed mortgage: ~6.6% (ticked up this week)
Last week we got the good news we'd been waiting on. The job market finally started showing cracks, which is the thing we've said for months would eventually start pushing the Fed toward cutting rates. This week we got a gut punch we didn't see coming though that really hurt our view.
Iran blew up the peace deal.
So let me be straight about our own calls, because that honesty is the whole point of these updates.
We did say the war would probably drag on longer than most people expected, maybe into 2027. That part is playing out. But we also thought this particular deal would hold, because it was a genuinely good deal for Iran. Them torching it caught us off guard because it was sooo good for them. So let's get into that.
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Why this shocked us......
Look at what Iran walked away from. The deal handed them $300 billion to rebuild, lifted the sanctions strangling their economy, and let their oil flow and earn again. The IRGC could have stayed in power and ruled Iran untouched. The main thing they had to give up was the nuclear weapon. They said no.
That tells you something heavy. They want the bomb more than they want their own economy and country to flourish. Crazy. Which means this probably escalates before it gets better.
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What it means for your money.....
Iran attacked ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow stretch of water where about a fifth of the world's oil passes through. The US struck back. Oil jumped about 5%. When oil climbs, everything costs more to make and move, so the fear of inflation comes right back.
Here's why I'm adding mortgage rates to these updates. Watch what the 30 year mortgage did this week. It climbed to around 6.6%. A war on the other side of the world just made it more expensive for a regular family here to buy a house. I hope this help to show how connected all this is.
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What about crypto?
Two headwinds to know about. The crypto law we track (the Clarity Act) is still stuck in the Senate and might not pass before their August break. If it doesn't pass now, it might not pass at all. Here's an explanation below.
The Office of Government Ethics released Trump's disclosure on July 1 showing roughly $1.4 billion in crypto income in 2025, including $635 million from the $TRUMP meme coin and over $500 million from World Liberty Financial. That's the ammunition behind the Democratic demand that public governement officials can't profit from crypto, and the White House won't accept any provision aimed at the president. Add the Section 604 law-enforcement fight and the stablecoin-yield fight (Coinbase's ~$1.35B in USDC revenue versus the banks), and the math is brutal: Republicans hold 53, but Hawley and Paul are expected to vote no, so they need ~9 Democrats and only 2 conditional ones are there. Senate returns July 13 with ~3 weeks to the August recess, the last realistic gate before midterms eat the calendar. If it somehow passes, Citi and Standard Chartered have BTC targets of $143k-$150k tied to it. So it's binary: dead-for-now, or a major catalyst.
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So why isn't Bitcoin saving us right now?
Bitcoin was built to be money that no government can print, freeze, or control. That's the whole reason it exists, and it's why it still holds real value even in a mess like this. Over the long run, that independence is the entire point. If anything this continuation of the Iran War only makes Bitcoin stronger because excess spending requires excess printing. The US already pays 14% of it's annual budget just on interest payments on the debt. It's a crazy number but more on this later.
But in the short run, Bitcoin still swings with the dollar and whatever the Fed does. When money gets tight, Bitcoin feels it just like stocks do. A lot of you have asked the fair question: if Bitcoin is supposed to be independent, why does it flinch every time the Fed sneezes essentially?
The honest answer is that this market is still young. It's too new and too small to have broken free yet. That day is coming, and we simply aren't there.
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So what do we actually do?
Nothing dramatic. This is a week to stay calm and keep our eyes open. Looking at the Bitcoin chart we can see the price action looks weak, meaning it looks like the probability that we're going lower in the short to medium term increases. It might just bleed until we hit the next stop at 59k and then 55k. We would need some really really good news to get us out of this bearish downward move.
The war got worse, gas and mortgages are climbing again, and the easy wins aren't here yet. But cheap Bitcoin, bought patiently while everyone else panics, is exactly how the calm ones win this game.
Remember, don't get shaken out by the market - these updates are meant to help you understand the moves so you can save your mental capital. As always, drop your questions below and any suggestions on topics you want us to cover!
Ps. I did remove the green arrow now since we've reached the timing destination. Now we're really waiting for how this Iran War plays out.
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7/8 – Market Update: The Iran War is Back. What It Means for You.
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