14d • General discussion
7/2 – Market Update: Weak Jobs. The 1st crack. BTC/ETH UP!
- BTC: ~$61,900 (up ~4% today)
- ETH: ~$1,710 (up ~7% today)
The June jobs report came out this morning and it was weak. Normally weak news like that scares the market and drags Bitcoin down. Today it did the opposite, and Bitcoin climbed all day. If you've been with us since April, you know why that matters. This is the moment we've been describing for months, where bad news for the economy starts becoming good news for crypto.
Remember - THIS IS WHY WE SAID LETS WAIT FOR JULY! I've purposely left the green arrow in place in every chart picture because now we're here. Sooooo let's break it down!
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The jobs number looked fine on the surface.
The economy added only 57,000 jobs in June. Experts expected almost double that. And the last two months got quietly revised lower. So hiring is slowing down more than the headlines let on.
Here's the tricky part. The unemployment rate actually dropped to 4.2%, which sounds great. But it dropped for a bad reason. Hundreds of thousands of people simply stopped looking for work, and when you stop looking, you don't get counted as unemployed. So the number looks healthy while real life keeps getting harder for people. That's the squeeze on everyday families we've been warning about since April, finally showing up in the data.
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Why Bitcoin went up instead of down.
The moment that weak report hit, the market lowered its bets that the Fed will raise interest rates. When rate hikes look less likely, money flows back toward riskier things like stocks and crypto. So Bitcoin climbed.
This is the engine we keep pointing to. Bitcoin moves the second people start believing cheaper money is coming. It doesn't need the Fed to actually cut first. That belief just got its first real spark in months.
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Warsh played his part.
Kevin Warsh, the new head of the Fed, spoke at a big banking event this week. His message stayed simple: prices are still too high, and he plans to bring them down.
Here's what he's really doing. Warsh knows regular people are stretched thin, buried under credit card debt and rent they can barely afford. If he raises rates, he crushes them even harder. So instead of raising anything, he uses words. He talks tough, keeps everyone a little nervous, and lets the market cool itself down on its own. He's betting oil keeps falling over the next few months, which pulls prices down for him without him lifting a finger.
Housing is helping him too. Home prices have basically stopped climbing, asking prices have slipped for 7 months straight, and in a lot of cities they're actually dropping. The Fed watches numbers like these to decide when it's safe to cut. Even one small cut would flip the whole mood of the market.
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So why keep buying now, while Bitcoin is still falling?
I get this question all the time. Bitcoin's under 62k and looks like it wants to go lower, so why buy?
Here's how I see it. Could we drop another 20%, down toward the low 50s? Sure, and I'm not pretending that can't happen. But if I'm buying now and I think we're headed toward 90k by the end of the year once rate cuts enter the picture, a short dip along the way barely matters.
The mistake people are making is doubting two things: that inflation cools as oil flows again, and that everyday people keep getting squeezed. Both moved in our favor today.
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Bottom line.
The three things we've been waiting on (oil coming down, the Clarity Act passing, the dollar weakening) still haven't fully happened. But the weak jobs market we predicted back in April just showed up, right on time. That's the first domino.
So I'm doing what I always do. Buying slowly. Small amounts. Nothing that keeps me up at night if we dip lower. The turn doesn't announce itself, and the people who panic out right before it are usually the ones who regret it.
Stay patient. Stay in. Drop your questions below!
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7/2 – Market Update: Weak Jobs. The 1st crack. BTC/ETH UP!
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