6/11 - Market Update: The Most Important Chart Right Now Isn't Bitcoin.

BTC: ~$62,000

ETH: ~$1,660

Big headline? Trump just threatened to seize Iran's main oil island this morning.

Markets are correcting on the news and Bitcoin dropped into the price channel we shared last week.... but markets know there's no easy answer here. Every escalation extends the timeline. And an extended timeline means our thesis plays out later ... which lets be honest... gives Bitcoin time to drop more.

However the most important thing to do right now is pay attention and not lose focus!

So where does the momentum go?

_______________________________________________

#1 — What's Driving Momentum Downward

Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. will seize Kharg Island — Iran's main oil export terminal, about 90% of their crude shipments — "in the not too distant future." He told Fox News he'd stop everything tonight if Iran just signs the deal.

My honest read: if we wanted that island, we'd have it already. The U.S. bombed Kharg's military infrastructure back in March and deliberately left the oil infrastructure untouched. You don't preserve something you plan to destroy. He's trying to pressure Iran into a deal but I think it's just TACO.

There's an acronym some analysts use: TACO. Trump Always Chickens Out. His pattern is to escalate to the edge, then negotiate. But I think this is why it's important to pay attention because we could get a surprise deal done where the straight opens. This is why we have to stay focused. If this happens, then markets will rip upward.

_______________________________________________

#2 — Why This Is a Stalemate, Not an Invasion

Iran isn't still fighting because they think they can beat us militarily. They're fighting because if they stop and it looks like a surrender, the regime doesn't survive. A deal that destroys them from the inside is worse than a war.

So the only deal Iran signs is one where they get to save face. Which means at some point Trump has to soften the language and give them that exit. Backtracking is actually the smarter play here and we know he's done it before.

Both sides are stuck. Neither can fully escalate without consequences they don't want. That's really our current stalemate.

_____________________________________________

#3 — What This Means for the Market

The 3 things we've been waiting on — Clarity Act, Iran resolution, DXY lower — still haven't happened. ETF outflows hit $5.4 billion over 4 weeks. CPI came in at 4.2%. The Fed isn't cutting. If $63k fails cleanly, $55k-$58k is still on the table.

For now though it looks like we're going to range and chop price wise into that channel that we posted last week and you can see below.

The thesis hasn't changed there's just a lot more noise but the base macro moves are the same.

______________________________________________

Final Take: Don't Get Knocked Out of the Market.

Look, in the end, the second this thing gets even a partial resolution, everything will move fast. Oil drops, inflation cools, the Fed finally has some room to breathe, and Bitcoin start to bottom and recover.

And honestly, this deal could get signed tomorrow. Trump is literally offering Iran the exit tonight on live TV. Iran is still talking to mediators so the possibility is there but if not then I don't think Bitcoin is done correcting. It really needs this war to end before any of that can happen or at least a ceasefire where oil cools inflation down.

But when that moment comes, you want to fill good about already being in the BC trade.

My personal take: pay down your debt, keep some cash available and DCA slowly here. Small amounts. Nothing you'd lose sleep over if we drop to $55k. Because we might.

We're either close to the lows or we go a little lower. Both are fine if you're patient. What's not fine is panicking out right before the flip.

Stay disciplined. Don't look away.

As always, drop your questions below.

2 comments

6/11 - Market Update: The Most Important Chart Right Now Isn't Bitcoin.