24d (edited) • General discussion
4/22 - Market Update: The Rally Is Real - So Is The Chop. Let Me Explain.
Bitcoin - $78,000
Ethereum - $2,300
Big headline news? - Iran Ceasefire extension.
Our thesis is holding. Now let's dig into what's actually ahead, because this is where people will start to make mistakes.
Also, side note.... did we call the Bitcoin bottom? https://www.skool.com/the-school-of-bits-4553/is-65k-the-btc-bottom?p=b0166570
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💠#1 - The price action feels a little tooo good. Let's hope it doesn't get too hot too fast.
BTC is rallying upward almost hitting 80k but to be honest, fast moves like this before May have a history of getting destroyed over the summer. Over the last 10yrs, June avg's basically zero returns for BTC. July can be hit or miss on small gains but the point is.... don't chase a 2-week rally, this is why we advocate for dollar-cost averaging... you should already be in this and stress free. BTC needs to continue a steady climb. Goal is to stay patient. Get through the summer chop. Wait for Q4 signals.
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💠#2 - Kevin Warsh Hearing - said exactly what he needed to say.
Trump's Fed chair nomiee sat in front of the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday. He said the Fed needs "regime change." He said he'd cut the number of policy meetings. He said Trump never asked him to pre-commit to lower rates, and that he wouldn't have agreed even if asked.
My take...the market had priced in a more openly dovish Warsh. What they got was a careful man protecting his credibility before he even has the job. That's actually what you want in a Fed chair. Now we wait to see if he officially gets the job because there's a current holdout keeping the vote locked in - Republicam Thorn Tillis.
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💠#3 - The job market headline looks fine.. but consumers don't.
Jobless claims came in at 214,000 - so stable and no "alarms" but this isn't the real picture.
Underneath that decent number is US credit card debt currently at 1.3 TRILLION and growing. This is the highest ever recorded. About 111 MILLION Americans can't pay their card balance off in full each month. Over 27 million can only afford the minimum payment, meaning they're paying almost entirely in interest while the principal barely moves. Gas is up nearly 30% nationwide. We're in for bad numbers in the summer - expect a panic, dip, correction... all the bad market things.
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🟢 A slowdown might actually pull rate cuts forward.
If consumer spending cools over the next 2-3 months, then inflation data softens, that hands the Fed the cover it needs to cut sooner than Q4. I think that's a scenario many aren't expecting and has potential to catch people on the sidelines.
The domino sequence still holds:
Iran unresolved → oil stays elevated → inflation sticky → BUT a weakening consumer gives the Fed reason to cut early → cheaper money flows into assets → scarce assets lead.
Bitcoin responds to liquidity. It doesn't need to understand the politics of who's cutting or why.
Let me know if this format is a little easier to read and of course if you have any questions!
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4/22 - Market Update: The Rally Is Real - So Is The Chop. Let Me Explain.
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