I was up at 6:00 AM PST today ready to pull the trigger on some discounted HYLD, QDAY, and HDIV, but the market had other plans. Prices kept climbing, so I stayed on the sidelines. My current rule is strict: I am only buying if the price is below my average cost per share. I was also going to buy SIXY but decided to wait.
The Outlook
- March: Expecting a fairly decent month overall.
- April/May: Still bracing for an S&P 500 correction that could lead to a deeper drop of another 5-10%.
- Summer/Fall: Anticipating sideways movement until October.
- The Wildcard: There’s always the chance the correction already happened and we’re in the clear, but I’m staying cautious.
Bitcoin (BTC) Watch
Over at @GaryGillBitcoin, I’ve been calling for a test of the $80k level followed by a potential crash back to $60k. So far, the price action is lining up with that thesis.
However, if February truly was the bottom, we might be looking at a full recovery sooner than expected.
The Bottom Line
At the end of the day, we’re all just using historical data to make educated guesses. No one has a crystal ball, and certainty is an illusion in this game. We strategize, we wait, and we adapt.