Apr 11 (edited) • News
⚠️ IF YOU’RE UNDER 30, DO NOT BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW. HERE’S WHY
Step 1: The U.S. just got pulled into a 𝐌𝐀𝐉𝐎𝐑 𝐂𝐎𝐍𝐅𝐋𝐈𝐂𝐓 with Iran. Markets are already reacting to a multi-week escalation risk.
Step 2: The Strait of Hormuz was 𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐑𝐔𝐏𝐓𝐄𝐃. A huge portion of global oil supply was temporarily at risk.
Step 3: Oil surged toward $90+ per barrel, with analysts warning of $100+ if tensions escalate again.
Step 4: When oil goes up, 𝐄𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐘𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆 goes up. Gas. Food. Shipping. Construction materials. 𝐄𝐕𝐄𝐑𝐘𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐍𝐆.
Step 5: Inflation is 𝐒𝐓𝐈𝐂𝐊𝐘. It’s still above 3%, and energy shocks are pushing it higher again.
Step 6: If inflation stays high, the Fed 𝐂𝐀𝐍’𝐓 cut rates. Rate cuts are already being pushed back.
Step 7: Higher rates = higher mortgage rates. Right now? Around 6.3%–6.5%. Still expensive.
Step 8: Higher mortgage rates = people 𝐂𝐀𝐍’𝐓 afford payments. Demand gets crushed.
Step 9: Inventory is already 𝐑𝐈𝐒𝐈𝐍𝐆. Listings are increasing and homes are sitting longer.
Step 10: Price cuts are spreading across major cities. Some markets are already seeing declines.
Step 11: Financial stress is building. Foreclosure-related searches just hit the highest level since 2020.
Step 12: When people struggle with high payments and high costs… they 𝐒𝐄𝐋𝐋.
Step 13: Housing inventory builds. Sellers start competing. Prices start dropping.
Step 14: Stocks are already under pressure. Trillions wiped out during the recent selloff.
Step 15: When stocks fall, layoffs follow. Tech. Finance. Real estate. Construction. 𝐀𝐋𝐋 of them.
Step 16: Laid off people with expensive mortgages? They 𝐒𝐄𝐋𝐋. At 𝐀𝐍𝐘 price.
Step 17: Housing inventory 𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐆𝐄𝐒. Prices 𝐃𝐑𝐎𝐏. 10%? 20%? In some markets — more.
This is 𝐄𝐗𝐀𝐂𝐓𝐋𝐘 how the cycle works.
Oil shock → inflation → high rates → weak demand → stress → selling → price drops.
𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐒𝐀𝐌𝐄 𝐒𝐄𝐐𝐔𝐄𝐍𝐂𝐄 𝐈𝐒 𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐀𝐆𝐀𝐈𝐍. Step by step. In real time.
If you have cash, 𝐒𝐈𝐓 𝐎𝐍 𝐈𝐓. The biggest buying opportunity of your generation may be ahead.
If you just signed a mortgage at the top? I’m sorry.
This isn’t fear. This is math.
Bookmark this. Come back in 12–24 months.
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⚠️ IF YOU’RE UNDER 30, DO NOT BUY A HOUSE RIGHT NOW. HERE’S WHY
