The KSE-100 survived two wars in less than 2 years. And it's still up 48%.

Here's the timeline:

Jan 2025: Market starts at 115,127 points.

May 2025: Pakistan-India war. Index crashes 12% in 4 days. Circuit breakers triggered. People panic-sell. Ceasefire announced. Next session? +9.2% in a single day.

Jan 2026: New all-time high. 191,032 points.

March 2026: US-Iran war breaks out. Strait of Hormuz blockaded. Oil hits $120. KSE crashes 16,089 points in one session, worst single-day drop in PSX history. Pakistan brokers a ceasefire. Next session? +14,137 points, biggest single-day gain in PSX history.

Today ~168,100 points. Up 48% from where we started.

Both times, the news was terrifying. Both times, the market felt broken. Both times, the people who acted on emotion lost. The people who acted on fundamentals won.

This is the oldest principle in investing, and the hardest to follow:

"Separate the noise from the signal."

Noise is what's on the news. Signal is what's in the numbers: earnings, interest rates, macroeconomic direction, valuations.

In both crashes, Pakistan's fundamentals hadn't changed. Rates were still falling. The IMF program was intact. Corporate earnings were solid. The signal was still bullish. Only the noise had turned deafening.

Your daily practice: every time you feel the urge to make a move based on a headline, stop and ask one question: Has anything changed in the fundamentals, or just the sentiment?

If only the sentiment changed, the answer is almost always: sit tight.

Were you holding, selling, or buying during either crash? 👇

6 comments

The KSE-100 survived two wars in less than 2 years. And it's still up 48%.