My first acquisition looked perfect on paper. The P&L was clean. The broker was confident. The monthly payment worked.
The P&L was manipulated. I did not catch it until I was already in.
I lost five figures on that deal.
That mistake is why I run every client's numbers the way I do now. And right now, the mistakes I am seeing are worse.
The SBA raised its minimum credit score from 155 to 165. The max on a small 7(a) dropped from $500K to $350K. Upfront guaranty fees are back. These are hard filters. Your application gets rejected before a human ever reads it if you do not clear them.
On top of that, sellers are getting aggressive. I watched a client walk into a deal last month on a service business doing $180K in SDE. Seller wanted 4.2x. Two years ago that trades at 3x. The broker said "the market has shifted."
The market did not shift. The seller's expectations shifted because he knows buyers have cheaper money.
My client almost paid it. The monthly payment "worked" on paper. That is the trap.
A deal that works on a spreadsheet is not the same as a deal that builds wealth.
Here is the rule I give every client right now. Run your numbers at today's rates.
Then run them again at 2 points higher. If it only works because rates are low, you are buying a rate. Not a business.
Comment CHECKLIST and I will send you the 2026 SBA deal checklist I use with every client.