What Determines the Rate on a 30-year Mortgage?

This article from Fannie Mae aims to answer that exact question. If you don't have time to read the full article, below is an AI-generated summary:

Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, which reflects investor expectations about short‑term interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and fiscal policy. Even when the Federal Reserve cuts rates, mortgage rates can rise if economic data is strong or inflation remains persistent. Recently, resilient economic performance and inflationary pressures have pushed Treasury yields higher, leading to an increase in mortgage rates.

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