2d • General discussion
Spring calf prices aren’t “cooling off.” That’s a comforting lie.
If you’re waiting for spring to buy calves because you think prices will soften, you may want to rethink that plan.
The U.S. cattle herd is still historically tight. Rebuilding has been slow. Demand hasn’t blinked. And every signal coming out of the market points to one thing: replacement and feeder calves are going to stay expensive — and likely get more expensive.
Industry forecasts are already putting 500–600 lb calves in the low-to-mid $400s per cwt this spring, with plenty of local markets pushing past that for quality cattle. Seasonal supply bumps may slow the pace briefly, but they’re not fixing the underlying problem: there simply aren’t enough calves.
Add in:
• Rising input costs
• Shrinking slaughter capacity
• Ongoing volatility in trade and logistics
• Buyers trying to lock in inventory earlier than ever
…and spring starts looking less like relief and more like another step up.
This isn’t fear-mongering. It’s math.
Producers and buyers who secure calves now are buying certainty. Those waiting for “better prices later” may end up competing harder, paying more, or not getting cattle at all.
In tight markets, timing beats hope — every time.
#cattlemarkets #beefindustry #agriculture #livestock #cowcalf #feeder cattle #ranching #marketoutlook #riskmanagement #supplyanddemand
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Spring calf prices aren’t “cooling off.” That’s a comforting lie.
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