16d • General discussion
The Reason Ads Feel Like Gambling
Ads only feel like gambling when there’s no model behind the spend.
Here’s the truth…
Most businesses don’t run ads with math.
They run them with hope.
They ask:
“How much should we spend?”
Before asking:
“How does this turn into profit?”
When you don’t know:
• Your cost per lead
• Your close rate
• Your average deal value
• Your follow-up speed
Every campaign feels random.
So when results dip, people say:
“Ads are hit or miss.”
“They worked last month.”
“The algorithm changed.”
Nothing changed.
The system was never clear.
Example:
Business A knows:
$40 per lead
20% close rate
$1,000 sale
Clear margin
Business B launches ads and watches numbers move.
Same platforms.
Different confidence.
Simple takeaway:
Ads aren’t risky.
Running them without math is.
Question for you —
what number would make your ads feel predictable instead of stressful?
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The Reason Ads Feel Like Gambling
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