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The "linear" theta line is a lie
I ran every strike through Black-Scholes this weekend. The output surprised me ($100 underlying, 20% IV, 4% rates): - ATM theta at 30 DTE: $4.36/day per contract - ATM theta at 1 DTE: $21.43/day per contract ATM decay accelerates into expiration. But OTM does the opposite. 5% OTM theta peaks at 21 DTE, then collapses, 10% OTM theta is essentially gone by 14 DTE. The closer you get to expiration, the slower OTM premium decays. The reason is gamma. Theta doesn't have its own engine. It borrows gamma's. Near expiration, gamma concentrates almost entirely at the money. OTM strikes lose gamma, so they lose theta too. Your OTM short that feels safe at 21 DTE has already peaked. Holding it to expiration isn't collecting more decay. It's carrying pennies in front of a steamroller. Theta is not magic income. It is rent for sitting on gamma risk.
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The "linear" theta line is a lie
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This Week We are Up $7530 and Continuing to Increase Our Gains!
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