4d (edited) • General discussion
Amazon After Earnings: When Ratio Risk Beats Naked Risk
Hey! I wanted to share my first options trade idea here for your review.
Last week we skipped trading AMZN earnings. Options were pricing 7.5%, reality was -14%, so short gamma was not the place to be.
In my personal view it was only a repricing of capex and FCF timing, nothing more. AWS re-accelerated, ads keep growing >20%, NA retail margins are improving, but the market suddenly realized buybacks and FCF are pushed out by heavy AI capex.
Post-earnings, the setup changed. The shock is out, downside skew is still rich, and fundamental downside convexity is much lower than before the print.
That's why ratio risk now beats naked risk, so today I'm expressing this via a March put ratio:
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Amazon After Earnings: When Ratio Risk Beats Naked Risk
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