Chart Study - August 21st, 2025

Greetings! This week was immense for many of you, passing evaluations and some of you even earning payouts and beyond. Yes, looking at you

@Standard Practice

! 🚀

Coming into the day, we were inside of the HTF area on the daily chart (not shown, as the key level was hit on the Wednesday. This is important for Wednesday, but we will bear in mind that we are in an area of POTENTIAL HTF movement in this zone, but not bullish just yet).

We start with our 15min for immediate bias, showing a break of internal structure to the downside (the dotted line), and we note that the low is infact, not a credible low. Therefore our thesis is that we expect a trade back into the above zone, and if we should get a violent 2nd distribution movement away from it, then we would be targeting the prior days low (this coincides with our next day model bias).

It's worth mentioning two things as well, from a higher timeframe standpoint. The fact that we disrespected the midpoint of the current swing on the way up, along with the climactic nature of the movement down yesterday, leads us to believe IF we do take the low of yesterday, that we are likely in a range or nearing a major reversal.

Our first major point of interest comes in after the 1st 15min candle finishes up, as price creates a SNDR, causing not only a flip (yellow line) but a break in structure as well. Our new expectation is that ONLY IF this area is broken on the retest, that we should be able to risk off of it on the inverse. We also expect any LTF flip to retest this area as well. Our main concern with a rally is that we left lunchtime lows from the prior day untested, a key and main objective. So the main idea, would be a retest of the SNDR, failure, a flip (hopefully, or an inversion), then continuation for the lunch lows of yesterday.

It's worth noting in the following 10 minutes of price action that:

-We had no flip

-The SNDR area is not structural, so there is no structure break here

-We closed under the liquidity & fake flip candle (green line), showing strength from bearish PA

Our new expectation is a new low of day, which happens shortly afterwards.

For the purposes of this and future studies, the goal is to not look at momentum trades as the understanding of context within them (in my opinion) is far more important, and also a sharper learning curve. So we will leave out the massive movement that happened at the lunch lows for now, and focus on getting involved on the pullbacks, as that's where the safer, life changing money is until our narrative improves.

Zooming ahead to the 10:32 candle, we note:

-Clear break of structure on both the 15min and 1min timeframes

-We have now flipped inside of the 15min zone above

-We expect a pullback

A pullback to where? The main area of decision making from this morning. The one we said an hour ago needed to break to send us up in the first place.

What are the chances that people shorted there on the way up??

Lets move it over, and see if we have confluence for an objective:

Not only do we have:

-midpoint of the current swing

-The above midpoint is INSIDE the SNDR from earlier

But BOTH are resting right below a 15min low. Lets see how price reacts:

As of this current candle, we have a few pieces of key information we need to be aware of:

-The 5min timeframe flipped back bearish, which is a concern

-The HOD flip area is left unmitigated (objective higher)

-We have a flip on our LTF inside of a key area of interest

We wait for a tap back in, and away we go:

Target? the 5min high. We have a flip on our LTF