Feb 26 • Tips
Valanciunas, Avdija 26/2/25
🏀Jonas Valanciunas (Sacramento) 6.5- under points
Valanciunas is an NBA throwback. In a different era, he might have been considered one of the best centers in the game.
He’s an absolute beast on the interior, capable of racking up points and rebounds with the best of them.
Unfortunately, the game has changed. Centers need to do more than just stand in the paint, particularly on defense. That has always been the biggest flaw in Valanciunas’ game. For every point he scores on offense, he typically gives it right back on defense.
That has made playing time increasingly harder for him to come by. He’s bounced around in recent years, and he was acquired by the Kings before the trade deadline. That locks him into a backup role as long as Domantas Sabonis is healthy.
In seven games since landing in Sacramento, Valanciunas has averaged just 14.3 minutes per game. He’s attempted just 4.3 shots per game, and he’s averaged just 6.6 points. Outside of one 13-point eruption, he’s been limited to six points or fewer in each contest.
The Kings have excellent offensive upside Wednesday vs. the Jazz – Utah ranks dead last in defensive efficiency – but Valanciunas shouldn’t be on the floor enough for that to matter.
Even if the game turns into a blowout, Valanciunas hasn’t seen an uptick in minutes in those scenarios. That makes it tough to see an outcome where Valanciunas gets to 7+ points.
🏀Deni Avdija (Portland) 29.5+ over points,rebounds and assists
Best bet after all stars break!
Lets get this down!
If we break down Avdija after AS, he had 37,23(blowout, 23mins played) and 37PRA! He avrg 1.04PRA per minute played!
Washington allows 22.47/7.55/3.94 to his second position and 23.98/11.88/5 to his prime, ranked in all points/reb/ass in worst 5 in league!
We have big advantage here, as Portland is attacking play-in spot and Washington is not getting blowouted rec! Wizards were only blowouted 3 times in 2025 and still not a single time in February!
Hard matchup for Simmons, Sharpe and Henderson there, so we can expect Avdija to get his PRA even on higher lvl!
On other hand, this is a personal thing to Avdija! He was traded from Wizards to Portland and he just shined up 🔝!
His projection is around 34.7PRA tonight, which gives us a bit over 14% of this margin!
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Valanciunas, Avdija 26/2/25
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