Dec '24 (edited) • Tips
TOR @ NYK MON 09DEC25
Jalen Brunson 25+ Points @ 1.80 (-125) ❌
Ready? Here’s my breakdown:
The New York Knicks (NYK) bring a distinct advantage into this matchup, particularly in scoring efficiency and overall team dynamics. NYK averages 118.0 points per game (#6), surpassing the league average of 112.5 points per game (#16). Their offensive flow and efficient ball distribution enhance their ability to exploit mismatches, creating consistent scoring opportunities. This aligns perfectly with the Toronto Raptors’ (TOR) defensive struggles, as TOR allows opponents to score 117.4 points per game (#25), indicating vulnerability against high-scoring teams. Additionally, TOR concedes 25.7 assists per game (#19), highlighting challenges in disrupting effective ball movement and playmaking.
NYK excels in Effective Field Goal Percentage (58.3%, #2) and Free Throw Percentage (82.2%, #1), demonstrating their scoring efficiency and ability to capitalise on free-throw opportunities. Toronto’s high personal fouling rate (22.5 personal fouls per game, #30) exacerbates this issue, often putting opponents on the line and providing additional scoring opportunities. Brunson, with his ability to draw fouls and convert free throws, is perfectly positioned to exploit this dynamic.
While NYK’s Three-Point Percentage (39.8%, #2) is an offensive strength, TOR’s Opponent Three-Point Percentage (35.0%, #8) reflects a relatively strong perimeter defense. However, it’s important to note that TOR allows 14.1 Opponent 3PM per game (#23), indicating they concede a high volume of threes despite contesting them effectively. This nuanced dynamic could still favour NYK’s sharp shooters while also opening up opportunities for inside-out play.
Pace also plays a significant role in this game. NYK’s controlled pace (97.2 possessions per game, #26) facilitates deliberate and efficient offensive setups, maximising high-quality possessions for scorers like Brunson. Conversely, Toronto’s faster pace (100.4, #23) creates opportunities for transition play, where NYK can exploit TOR’s defensive lapses, particularly against skilled playmakers and efficient scorers.
NYK’s high efficiency in Points Per Possession (1.179, #2) contrasts well with TOR’s Defensive Efficiency (1.121, #15), underscoring Brunson’s ability to capitalise in structured offensive settings. NYK’s dominance in Effective Field Goal Percentage (58.3%, #2) compared to TOR’s Opponent Effective FG% (53.7%, #11) further strengthens this case. Additionally, Toronto struggles to contain two-point scoring efficiency (54.6% Opponent Two-Point FG%, #19), which aligns with Brunson’s interior scoring capabilities.
Over his last six games, Jalen Brunson has averaged 26.7 PTS, 3.0 REBS & 6.3 ASTS:
• 31 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST (11-21 FGM/FGA, 44 MIN) vs DET (12/7/2024)
• 24 PTS, 1 REB, 5 AST (6-8 FGM/FGA, 27 MIN) vs CHA (12/5/2024)
• 21 PTS, 2 REB, 4 AST (8-15 FGM/FGA, 27 MIN) vs ORL (12/3/2024)
• 16 PTS, 2 REB, 9 AST (4-11 FGM/FGA, 26 MIN) vs NOP (12/1/2024)
• 31 PTS, 6 REB, 6 AST (9-18 FGM/FGA, 37 MIN) @ CHA (11/29/2024)
• 37 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST (14-21 FGM/FGA, 36 MIN) @ DAL (11/27/2024)
Jalen Brunson has also delivered strong performances in recent matchups against Toronto, averaging 25.7 PTS, 4.1 REBS & 6.9 ASTS over the last seven games:
• 26 PTS, 4 REB, 7 AST (11-19 FGM/FGA, 29 MIN) on 3/27/2024
• 38 PTS, 5 REB, 9 AST (13-23 FGM/FGA, 35 MIN) on 1/20/2024
• 21 PTS, 2 REB, 9 AST (7-12 FGM/FGA, 38 MIN) on 12/11/2023
• 22 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST (9-21 FGM/FGA, 37 MIN) on 12/1/2023
• 21 PTS, 1 REB, 5 AST (6-15 FGM/FGA, 38 MIN) on 1/22/2023
• 26 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST (11-29 FGM/FGA, 43 MIN) on 1/16/2023
• 26 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST (9-19 FGM/FGA, 38 MIN) on 1/6/2023
These performances highlight Brunson’s consistent excellence against Toronto, leveraging both scoring efficiency and playmaking skills. TOR has consistently struggled to defend point guards effectively, evidenced by recent performances from opposing guards:
• Luka Dončić: 30 PTS, 38 MIN (12/8/2024)
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 30 PTS, 30 MIN (12/6/2024)
• T.J. McConnell: 14 PTS, 24 MIN (12/4/2024)
• Tyrese Haliburton: 30 PTS, 40 MIN (12/4/2024)
• Tyler Herro: 31 PTS, 37 MIN (12/2/2024)
• Ty Jerome: 26 PTS, 38 MIN (11/25/2024)
Brunson’s significant usage rate and ability to capitalise on mismatches make him a dependable scorer, especially against a team like TOR, which struggles to contain high-efficiency players. NYK’s offensive system, with its deliberate pace and superior efficiency, creates high-quality opportunities that perfectly complement Brunson’s strengths. With TOR’s consistent defensive vulnerabilities—including fouling, transition lapses, and difficulty defending in the paint—Brunson is poised for another standout performance.
Being the only NBA matchup on the day’s slate, this is Brunson’s time to shine 🌟
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TOR @ NYK MON 09DEC25
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