Dec '24 • Tips
Sengun v MIA 29/12/24
A. Sengun 21.5 Under
Miami has tightened up its defense and is finally looking like last year’s team, the one that limited pretty much every opponent’s #1 offensive option. I’m hoping for a repeat of that scenario tonight against Houston. Overall, we can expect a matchup of two extremely strong defenses, so I’m anticipating fewer possessions and fewer points, which is our first benefit here. Miami allows the 8th-fewest points to PnR Roll-Men in the entire league, the 3rd-fewest free throws per game, and the 13th-fewest points in the paint. These three areas account for about half (50%) of Sengun’s scoring.
On top of that, I expect Miami to gear its entire defense toward stopping Sengun. I believe we’ll see a lot of zone defense, which is typically problematic for centers who want the ball in their hands. Also, I think we’ll see plenty of help defense on Sengun in the low post. Plus, he’s facing Bam for practically the whole game, which I think makes this a really good bet.
Sengun has stayed under this line in 11 of his last 15 games against teams ranked in the top 13 for defensive rating. We’ve already seen Spolstra handle dominant opposing centers this season—he held Embiid to 11 points, Sabonis to 15, and Davis to 8. I think he’ll manage to keep Sengun under 20 as well. Brooks and Eason are questionable, and I believe both might play, which would further increase the value of our bet tonight.
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Sengun v MIA 29/12/24
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