T Murphy 15.5 Over – @1.90
I simply can’t accept Murphy’s line being set at 15.5 — no matter how poor he’s been to start the season, it shouldn’t be below 17.5–18.5, even with Zion, Poole, Firs, Bey, and the rest of the Pelicans’ roster. Murphy is much more than a spot-up shooter; against Denver, he looked off, and Jokic’s constant help defense at the top prevented him from finding good shooting positions. Tonight, facing Lopez and Zubac — both drop-coverage bigs who rarely step out — I expect Murphy to lean more on his pull-up game.
He’s played two blowout games already this season yet still consistently gets 32+ minutes. If this one stays close, 35–38 minutes are realistic. Last year, he went over this line in both matchups vs the Clippers with 18 and 21 points. Zion’s presence should pull defensive attention away from Murphy, giving him extra freedom — I expect him to take advantage.