Dec '24 (edited) • Tips
MIL @ OKC
Bobby Portis O7.5 Rebounds @ 1.88 ✅
Ready? Here’s my breakdown
Milwaukee Bucks bring a significant advantage into this matchup, particularly in Rebounding Control, where they average a Total Rebounds/Game of 51.2 (#22) and a Defensive Rebound Percentage of 76.5% (#8). These strengths align with Oklahoma City Thunder’s defensive tendencies. OKC allows opponents to secure an Opponent Total Rebounds/Game of 57.5 (#29) and an Opponent Defensive Rebound Percentage of 77.1% (#20), indicating that while they have solid rebounding capabilities, they are slightly below Milwaukee in controlling the glass.
Milwaukee’s rebounding consistency holds up on the road, where they average 50.1 total rebounds while OKC allows an average of 47.9 rebounds to visiting teams. In their last three games, Milwaukee has averaged 48.7 rebounds while OKC has surrendered 53 rebounds, further exposing their weaknesses on the defensive glass.
Portis’s favourable position is further supported by OKC’s struggles on the glass, where they rank #29 in Opponent Offensive Rebound Percentage at 27.9%, highlighting their inability to limit second-chance opportunities. Milwaukee’s strong Defensive Rebound Percentage of 76.5% (#8) creates a significant edge, especially with Portis’s expanded role when Khris Middleton is out, as he averages 8.1 rebounds per game in Middleton’s absence compared to 6.6 when he plays. Portis also benefits from increased minutes, averaging 24.4 per game without Middleton, ensuring more opportunities to secure rebounds and contribute defensively.
OKC’s recent rebounding issues extend to their opponent’s overall shot efficiency, allowing a high 52.7% Opponent Effective Field Goal Percentage (#7 worst) while struggling to box out effectively. Milwaukee’s Three-Point Percentage of 38.9% (#3) leads to longer rebound opportunities, further favouring Portis, whose defensive rebound positioning capitalises on these shots. OKC also ranks #29 in Opponent Offensive Rebounds Allowed per Game (12.9) - Portis should see increase minutes here and he is in a spot to thrive on boards today.
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MIL @ OKC
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