Dec '24 • Tips
M. Beasley vs DEN 28/12/24
M.Beasley 14.5 Over
“One of those under-the-radar picks, but I think there’s huge value here. Beasley has gone over this line in his last 5/5 games, and 7 of his last 8 overall. The only time he stayed under was against Boston, which is considered one of the best spot-up defenses in the entire league. Unlike Boston, Denver is considered one of the WORST spot-up defenses in the entire league. They allow the 4th-most points from spot-up situations, the 10th-most points in transition, and the 5th-most points from off-screen situations. From those three segments, Beasley gets 73% of his points. Additionally, Denver allows the 7th-most points from above the break, where Beasley scores 54% of his points, making this a very strong bet.
I expect Denver to double-team Cunningham after their embarrassing showing vs. Cleveland, so I anticipate more open looks for spot-up shooters. I believe this line is slightly lower than it should be, considering Beasley has gone over it in 17 of his last 22 games. There’s volume, the matchup is favorable, and I’m hoping he can exploit it properly.
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M. Beasley vs DEN 28/12/24
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