K. Towns 21.5 Over – @1.90
No need to overanalyze this one — it’s straightforward. The Bulls are by far the worst team in the league at defending centers, so I expect Mike Brown to keep attacking them with constant pick-and-roll action. Vucevic, along with Valanciunas, is one of the weakest PnR defenders in the NBA.
Towns loves playing against Chicago — last season he scored 46, 44, and 32 points against them. They allow the 2nd most points in the paint and the most within the restricted area. Since Vucevic always plays in drop coverage and Towns often stretches the floor with threes, this matchup suits him perfectly.
He takes 92% of his shots either from the paint or above-the-break threes, and the Bulls rank among the bottom five in defending both areas. Recent examples say enough: Porzingis 27, Sabonis 18, Stewart 20, Duren 14. Towns is a better scorer than all of them — I expect a 25+ point game tonight.