Feb 28 • Tips
4 more tips 28/2/25
J. Murray 19.5 Over
Jamal owes us, and I think tonight is the perfect opportunity for him to deliver, as he has a favorable matchup against the Pistons. Yes, the Nuggets are on a back-to-back, but if they want to secure a win against a tricky home team, Jokic will need someone to step up, and as the second scoring option, Murray is our pick.
The Pistons struggle to defend three-pointers, which is Murray’s strongest weapon. They also don’t defend the mid-range well, where he scores a lot, and they rank as the second-worst defense against PnR ball-handlers—an area where Murray thrives.
Westbrook may rest in this back-to-back, but regardless, in a close game, I expect Murray to play 35+ minutes. He already torched the Pistons for 34 points earlier this season. Last night, he took 20 shots, which is great for this line, and with that usage rate, I see him much closer to the over against Detroit.
Statistically, the Pistons rank 24th in defending opposing ball-handlers over the last 10 games, allowing an average of 28 PPG to them. Oddly enough, the Pistons are favored in this matchup, meaning it should be competitive, and I believe Murray gets 20+ points. Good luck.
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D. Bane 18.5 Over
Bane is questionable, but since most sportsbooks are offering him, let’s assume he will play against the Knicks. This should be a fast-paced game, which suits him well, and the Knicks aren’t great at defending ATB3, his two strongest weapons, making him more likely to go over this line.
In their only meeting this season, he finished with 16 points, but that was a blowout win for the Knicks, meaning he didn’t play his full minutes. Over his last nine games, he has surpassed this line seven times. In his last outing against the Suns, he played 43 minutes and scored 25 points.
If this game stays competitive and he gets his usual minutes (averaging over 35 MPG in his last 10), I see him much closer to the over. Good luck.
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C.J. McCollum 21.5 Over
CJ has a chance for a serious bounce-back game after struggling in the first half against the Suns last time, scoring just 5 points on 2/8 shooting. Interestingly, he finished that game with 19 points on 18 shot attempts. The fact that he has gone over this line in 19 of his last 25 games when taking 18+ shots speaks for itself.
This is an excellent matchup for him. The Suns have one of the worst defenses against PnR ball-handlers (#3 worst in the league) and rank #4 worst against transition scoring—two areas where CJ generates 42% of his points.
Additionally, the Suns have the #6 worst defense from ATB positions due to their bigs playing deep drop coverage, which McCollum exploits well. If everything goes as expected, I think CJ will carry his second-half momentum from the last game into tonight from the start.
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T. Young P+R+A 38.5 Under
Going back to a proven play and hoping for the same luck we had early in the season. Oklahoma is easily the best defensive team in the league, and their primary focus is shutting down opponents' top scorers. They not only have elite individual defenders (Dort, Caruso, Wiggins) but also frequently double, blitz, and trap ball-dominant players like Young.
Young already played against OKC once this season and finished with just 33 PRA. He had only 15 potential assists (converted 8) and 5 rebound chances (converted 1). Even individually, he stayed under in all three categories.
A blowout is very possible here, which works in our favor. If everything goes as expected, Young should comfortably stay under this line.
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4 more tips 28/2/25
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