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I'm watching and expecting BTC to 'Catch Up' to M2 Global Money Supply, which had a surge recently but for some reason Bitcoin (which usually follows Global M2 by 10-12 weeks) has been going down. So I asked Perplexity AI why Bitcoin was diverging from M2 and here's what it said: Short- and Medium-Term Outlook "Reports from September 2025 suggest that Bitcoin may again catch up with M2-driven targets if current consolidation resolves upward, especially if risk-on appetite returns to crypto markets and institutional flows accelerate. "The temporary lag appears mainly due to the interaction of new market participants, shifting global risk dynamics, and profit-taking after a sharp run-up rather than a breakdown in the long-term macro correlation. "In summary, the present Bitcoin-M2 divergence is explained by a complex mix of risk-off macro sentiment, evolving investor structure, and short-term consolidation within the crypto market—all occurring despite strong global liquidity expansion." https://www.perplexity.ai/search/given-that-bitcoin-price-usual-oCUutNy.TnSF6AHJ1B5uAg

Was just working on a new study showing the number of months and days between prior ATH's for Bitcoin has typically been between 46-49 months or 1400 to 1492 days as shown in the Green boxes. Based on the 2017 cycle, that puts this cycle ATH around November 1st 2025. So we don't have much time if this cycle is going to play out like prior ones.

Here's what I'm still expecting for Bitcoin here and holding the $112k level. If we can get a strong bounce there, and break the sell / resistance zone then it's off to $135k. But the last 2 weeks of August are usually slow, and low volume so I'm not expecting major moves until September.

The Bitcoin and Crypto rally should continue in the near term as the Dollar Index (DXY) continues to weaken and fall further in this downward parallel channel. Things are about to get interesting!