Hey everyone, here's a quick recap of today's M3 members video update.
I went back to a study we did a year ago on the five-day Gaussian channel. It's a lesser-known indicator, and it has given us good clues before.
How it usually plays out
• Price tops, then falls back into the red zone ("the quicksand").
• A break below the lower band flips the channel red, that level becomes resistance, and drops of 50–60% have followed.
• On the recovery, price usually stalls at the midpoint, breaks through, retests, and then runs.
Where BTC is now
• We didn't get the 50–60% drop this time. 48K is still possible, but it hasn't happened.
• Price was rejected at the midpoint and has now pushed up to the upper band.
• We're not bullish yet. We need a five-day close above 88K. That's where I'd say the bottom is in and the recovery is underway.
• A retest of the channel midline as support would be a healthy sign.
• Cycle analysis is looking for a daily/weekly cycle low sometime this week.
What this means for us
• This is a good time to sit on the sidelines. No FOMO, but be ready, because a breakout above 88K could take a single candle.
• Don't chase. Breakouts can turn out to be fakeouts.
• I've set an alert at 88K. The indicator's built-in channel alerts aren't working correctly, so I'm using price.
• We're not going to flip-flop, but new information means a new decision.
It's starting to look like a bottom is forming, but we'll confirm it before we act. I'll keep you posted.
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Educational content only, not financial advice.