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1d •
👋 Welcome to MathBased Betting
This group is built on one simple principle: math over emotions. I analyze matches, calculate their real statistical probabilities, and compare them with bookmaker odds to find true value spots.If the price is higher than the real probability suggests — that’s where we act. This is not a “daily lucky picks” group.This is not about chasing big accumulators.This is not about fast money. This is about: - 📊 Probability - 💰 Value - 📈 Long-term ROI - 🎯 Structured staking Before you start betting, I strongly recommend reading the educational guides pinned in the group. Understanding concepts like Unit, ROI, Value, and risk management is essential. If you don’t understand the system, you won’t trust it during variance. The goal here is simple: Build long-term profit through disciplined, mathematical betting — not quick dopamine hits. If you’re here to gamble, this isn’t the place.If you’re here to build an edge, you’re in the right group. Let’s bet smart.
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10h •
Bets for 25.02.2026
1.🇬🇧 Stoke City vs Oxford United 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 9:00 PM (CET) Bet: Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.66 Model probability: 72% Fair odds: 1.39Bookmaker odds: 1.66Edge: +0.19 Stake: 2 Units 2.🇧🇷 Clube Atlético Bragantino vs CA Paranaense 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 11:00 PM (CET) Bet: Over 9.5 Corners @ 1.78 Model probability: 80% Fair odds: 1.25 Bookmaker odds: 1.78 Edge: +0.42 Stake: 2 Units 3.🇬🇧 Millwall vs Birmingham 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 8:45 PM (CET) Bet: Millwall – Home Win @ 2.33 Model probability: 53% Fair odds: 1.89 Bookmaker odds: 2.33 Edge: +0.23 Stake: 1 Units 4.🇬🇧 Norwich vs Sheffield Wednesday 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 8:45 PM (CET) Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES @ 2.20 Model probability: 53% Fair odds: 1.89 Bookmaker odds: 2.20 Edge: +0.17 Stake: 1 Unit 5.🇧🇷 Coritiba vs São Paulo 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 11:30 PM (CET) Bet: São Paulo – Away Win @ 2.40 Model probability: 60% Fair odds: 1.67 Bookmaker odds: 2.40 Edge: +0.44 Stake: 2 Units 6.🇦🇷 CA Barracas Central vs CA Tigre 🕒 25 Feb 2026 – 9:00 PM (CET) Bet: CA Tigre – Away Win @ 2.32 Model probability: 67% Fair odds: 1.49 Bookmaker odds: 2.32 Edge: +0.55 Stake: 2 Units Good luck💸
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1d •
So we start here, first bets
1.Wrexham vs Portsmouth 🕒 24 Feb 2026 – 8:45 PM (CET) Bet: Both Teams To Score – YES @ 1.89 Model probability: 63% Fair odds: 1.59 Bookmaker odds: 1.89 Edge: +0.30 Stake: 2 Units 2.Watford vs Ipswich 🕒 24 Feb 2026 – 8:45 PM (CET) Bet: Watford – Home Win @ 2.98 Model probability: 53% Fair odds: 1.89 Bookmaker odds: 2.98 Edge: +1.44 Stake 1 Unit 3.Willem II vs HFC ADO Den Haag 🕒 24 Feb 2026 – 8:00 PM (CET) Bet: HFC ADO Den Haag – Away Win @ 1.92 Model probability: 77% Fair odds: 1.30 Bookmaker odds: 1.92 Edge: +0.62 Stake: 1 Unit good luck guys 💸
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I analyze football stats, calculate probabilities, and place bets only when the bookmaker’s odds offer real value and an edge.
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