Time to trade

If there's anything in the course that you don't fully understand or somewhere where I've assumed knowledge on something that isn't fully explained, please let me know in the comments on this post.

BTC weekly, 3 thrust bear div, pretty much same max historic BTC cycle length for a top. Lower high after MSB, rejection fib GP 118k. Likely target is 50 WMA again at 100k. But this will be 3rd test, and I don’t think it will hold. Weekly close below 100k = bear confirmation. And likely another 50% lower in 2026, meaning 50ks or 40ks. Which is pretty much exactly the same as previous bear markets. Let’s see what happens at 100k. More bullish again if we reclaim 118k. Until then I’m leaning towards bear/lower.

This is a setup that similar to a range happens very frequently. We've been in bearish market structure (bear trend), making lower highs and lower lows. We get a market structure break when price makes a higher high as it did here. Then after that the MSB is often followed by a retest of the fibonacci golden pocket, 61.8-0.70% retarcement, and if this is valid then we see continuation in the reversal direction of the MSB (up in this case). Invalidation is easy, it should not go below the wick low, as per the setup on this chart. Personally I do like this setup also, but it's not as reliable/predictable as the range setup which is why the range setup is my all time favorite, the rules and criteria are more clearly defined. (Go through the course in the classroom tab if you haven't done so yet to learn how). Anyways, just sharing some insights/educational updates here. Drop a like if you want me to do this more regularly. I'll update the chart in a few days so we can see how it played out.