Hey! As we start 2026, I want to share a few very personal market views and investment ideas I'm going to actively explore this year. This is not a recommendation and not a directional forecast. It's simply how I currently see market structure, volatility, and opportunity from the perspective of an active options seller and short-volatility hedge fund advisor. 1) Metals: the parabolic move may be behind, but volatility lingers Gold and silver already had their most emotional, parabolic phase. The important nuance is that implied volatility rarely normalizes as fast as price action does, and that lag is where options sellers get paid. So, I'll be very active in GLD, SLV, PALL, and URA, both in my personal portfolio and in our hedge fund. The specific edge I'm watching is post-spike IV that stays sticky after the trend fades, especially when the surface flips into volatility backwardation. That's a perfect setup for short-dated and 0-DTE premium harvesting. 2) Crypto: stagnation is the edge My base case for crypto is not another explosive trend, but prolonged consolidation. That's exactly why IBIT, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF with liquid options, is so interesting. Implied volatility remains structurally rich, often well above realized volatility. I don't trade crypto directionally, but I sell premium strategically. Compared to the industry's obsession with upside narratives, this approach is far less exciting, but it creates a much more consistent income engine. 3) Rate cuts shift income opportunities If rate cuts continue, my famous "yield engineering" trades like SPX box spreads and risk-free butterflies become less attractive. At the same time, they open a different door. Lower rates support REITs (Realty Income - O - remains my personal favorite), utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV, UNH), and dividend growth ETFs (SCHD). I consistently combine these with aggressive call writing, creating my Triple Income Strategy. This approach targets an additional 11-18% per annum, with extremely low volatility and zero vega risk!

Since the close, I do my routine to find what daily charts look best for the upcoming day, and right now the idea that seems best is actually SNOW. It is surprising to see that SNOW could in fact move lower with the gap down, and even close essentially at the low of day. This really points to a good strong possibility that SNOW could continue tomorrow for a couple of reasons: 1. Early week action - it seems like the market was front-running a good outcome with SNOW, so it had gotten in and bought prior. Now with the gap down, those buyers are underwater, and the market doesn't seem to be coming back for them. 2. The strong close. Even with the large gap down, the strong close into the low with some intraday follow-through shows that the market is still selling strong. This is good for potential follow-through. 3. The sideways close is good for tomorrow, as it builds tension around the lows. Will the area hold for the benefit of bulls, or will bears take another shot at it? Which means going into tomorrow, some things I'd want to see are: 1. An open relatively close to the close of today. 2. Market support - QQQ weak would be a nice plus. 3. VWAP strategy still in play. Don't normally like to be super locked in on one idea, but with the strong daily chart and the absence of other ideas, it seems like a good place to at least look first tomorrow.

SNOW and CRM Those are sort of similar to what happened with MRVL and MSFT today. CRM - Poor price position with very wide after-hours range. Then SNOW moving lower, but will the market support it? Then after that, there's likely going to be widespread risk. I do like how MSFT is pointed towards the downside, but I don't know if with a stronger index, a MSFT continuation is very likely. MSTR has a lot of volume, but the price is responding pretty unimpressively. I'm really just not sure at the moment, but learning from today about price position and market support, I will head into tomorrow morning with this in mind: What ideas have the position in their favor, and can they sync up with the market to give them the extra probability? For now, can't call anything.

Following up on the last point of either: 1. Stock-specific volatility = focus on that name 2. No stock-specific volatility = shift towards index Though I believe there is a chance with: 1. MRVL on Earnings - Large gap likely going into tomorrow - Unique news around Celestial AI acquisition - Rising volume 2. CRWD - Gap down - Nothing too crazy, but possibly worth the watch With earnings driving the volatility in these names, I believe there is some individual stock name opportunity. What will be good to consider about MRVL is that it has a pretty real catalyst with the acquisition, which means that while I've been shaping my views with all this mean reversion stuff lately, it is important to be objective and see that with the unique driver, MRVL could have some pretty directional/extension that keeps extending type move. Meaning it's a good time to be open-minded but also not forget our execution points with the VWAP.

One thing to learn from today is the fact that the best trade had: 1. Decent price structure to the downside 2. Opened lower (Position) 3. Responded weak at the open Which makes me wonder if that could be an ongoing trend, because I want to trade where those things are present. However, this makes me want to steer back to MSTR, as it seems to be the only one to have those things. In combination with: 1. Very large volume (market interest) 2. Good response from the low (significant price position) 3. BTC holding above 95k (market confluence) 4. Relative strength to market For those reasons, I'll be watching how BTC continues to do as we get closer to tomorrow's open, but so far I'm pretty curious to continue following MSTR + BTC.