Coach Bob’s Top Play for Thursday Night Football: I’m on Seattle -1.5 over Arizona. The Seahawks have won seven straight against the Cardinals and are 6–1 ATS in that stretch. Thursday Night Football – Week 4 Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals (43.5) Total Play: Over 43.5, Medium confidence. Both teams trend to the Over in September, with Seattle hitting 7 of its last 9 and Arizona 6 of its last 9. Expect chunk plays and points. Side Play (Top Play of the Night): Seattle +1, Medium-High confidence. Seahawks are 7–0 SU in their last 7 vs Arizona, 6–1 ATS, and 7–1 SU in their last 8 trips to Arizona. Seattle travels well, and this matchup history is one-sided. Good luck, and let’s cash these tickets.

jets win in overtime with a 30+ yard field goal after trailing for three quarters

Our first pick is the total — Over 51.5 (Confidence: Medium).Let’s start with the scoreboard. I like points tonight. Both offenses are built for chunk gains and red-zone conversion, and Baltimore’s cross-conference profile has leaned Over in these spots. The path is simple: if Baltimore plays from in front, the Lions’ pass game ramps pace and volume; if Detroit lands explosives early, the Ravens answer with field position and their own red-zone efficiency. Either way, we get extra possessions and short fields. Think 27–24 or 30–24—common game scripts that clear 51.5 without needing a track meet. The one caution is finishing drives; if either team stalls for too many threes, it tightens. But with these quarterbacks and coordinators, I’m comfortable grading Over 51.5 — Medium confidence. Our main pick is the side — Lions +6 (Top Play of the Night; Confidence: Medium).Now the spread. Straight up, I still lean Ravens—they’re 8–1 SU at home recently and 5–0 SU hosting Detroit. But survivor logic isn’t betting logic, and +6 is a different question. The Lions are 12–6 ATS in their last 18 and live in back-door territory because they stay aggressive late and convert fourth downs. Baltimore’s Week 3 ATS profile is lukewarm, and laying a full six against a resilient Detroit offense is expensive. What I like most: Detroit’s ability to live in second-and-manageable, keep the call sheet open, and create two-way cover paths—trade scores all night and land inside the number, or chase late with tempo for a fourth-quarter squeeze. If the Ravens jump out 10–0, Detroit’s hurry-up and fourth-down appetite can get you back within reach. If it’s tight throughout, six points are gold in the final two minutes. That’s why Lions +6 is our Top Play—we respect Baltimore’s straight-up edge but take the number with Detroit.

Week 3 brings that sweet spot in the season where identities start to harden and the market still leaves cracks to attack. I’m zeroing in on four edges that check the boxes we care about: matchup fit, trend support, and game-flow logic you can explain in plain English. We’ll count them down from #4 to #1, with our Top Play of the Week getting extra juice at the end. #4) Falcons at Panthers — Under 43.5 Key angles - Recent H2H in Carolina has leaned Under - Falcons’ road profile skews Under - Panthers’ home total trend has popped Over lately (the one caution) Why it works: Both teams want to shorten games with possession and field position. Atlanta’s best football comes when they stay on-schedule (2nd-and-6, 3rd-and-3), which bleeds clock and compresses total plays. Carolina’s offense has been start-stop enough that long drives often end in three, not seven. The caution flag is Carolina’s recent home Overs—but the base game script still projects fewer possessions and red-zone stalls. Lean Under. #3) Cowboys at Bears — Over 50 Key angles - 8 straight Overs in this series - Bears are 4 of their last 5 to the Over - Both defenses have given up explosives and short fields Why it works: Chicago’s pace swings and explosive-play volatility create extra possessions, while Dallas brings field-tilting playmakers who can cash those possessions into points. You don’t need a full track meet to clear 50—just one spurt on each side. Think 27–24 or 31–20 in common scripts. Weather and wind are your only late-week checks; otherwise, Over 50 is live. #2) Packers −8 at Browns Key angles - Packers 6–0 ATS in Week 3 - Browns 1–7 ATS recent slide - Packers have handled Cleveland straight-up in recent meetings Why it works: Green Bay grades out as the steadier operation: better middle-eight management, cleaner third downs, and fewer self-inflicted wounds in the red zone. The −8 isn’t the friendliest number (hello back-door), but the Packers’ early-down defense + late-down execution gives them multiple avenues to build and protect a two-score pocket. Slightly riskier than our #1 because it’s a road favorite and off the key number, but the matchup edges are real.

We are 10 - 13 on our Picks. Coach Bob’s Top Play for TNF: Bills −12.5. Buffalo’s been a fortress at home and they’ve owned this matchup. Full breakdown + my total play are inside Skool. Join at HotStreakPicks.com. TNF Card - Over 49.5 — Confidence: Medium - Bills −12.5 — Confidence: Medium-High (Top Play) Let’s cash.